The Los Angeles Lakers (23-23) are in South Beach Sunday for a 6 p.m. ET game against the Miami Heat (29-17) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Lakers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
L.A. rallied back from a first-half deficit to win and cover versus the Orlando Magic 116-105 as a 4.5-point road favorite Friday.
The Lakers are 2-4 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) with a minus-4.6 adjusted net rating (ranked 23rd) and a minus-8.3 ATS margin (ranked 29th) over the last two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Miami had its two-game win streak snapped after losing at the Atlanta Hawks 110-108 Friday as a 1.5-point road underdog.
The Heat are 4-2 SU and ATS with a plus-6.6 adjusted net rating (ranked third) and a plus-2.8 ATS margin (ranked seventh) in the last 14 days, per CTG.
A F LeBron James-less Lakers upset the Heat 120-117 in overtime at home in their first meeting this season (Nov. 10) as 5.5-point underdogs.
Lakers at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Lakers +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Heat -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Lakers +2.5 (-112) | Heat -2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Lakers at Heat key injuries
Lakers
- PF Anthony Davis (knee) questionable
- SF LeBron James (abdomen) probable
Heat
- PG Kyle Lowry (personal) out
- SG Tyler Herro (health and safety protocols) out
- PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
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Lakers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 114, Lakers 107
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Heat (-140) because they should win outright and if this number gets to -130 then Miami’s money line becomes the preferred wager. However, I’m confident enough in the Heat here to lay the points.
Against the spread
BET the HEAT -2.5 (-108) for 1 unit as a fade against the market that’s hammering the Lakers based on the possible return of AD.
Davis played and was very effective in the first Lakers-Heat meeting this season but the reason L.A. won was due to insanely hot and unsustainable 3-point shooting.
Miami actually won three of the “four factors” but the Lakers sunk 47.4% of their 3s while the Heat made just 27.0% of their 3s.
Westbrook and L.A. guards Avery Bradley, Malik Monk and Wayne Ellington combined to hit 16 of 28 shots from 3-point land. Those 3-point performances should flip in this game since role players shoot better at home.
Furthermore, Miami allows the fewest paint points per game (PPG) and will pack the paint to force Lakers’ Russell Westbrook and LeBron into contested outside jumpers.
The Heat also have two strength-on-weakness edges over the Lakers with ball security and rebounding. L.A. is 22nd in both offensive turnover rate and defensive rebounding rate. Miami is third in defensive turnover rate and fifth in offensive rebounding rate.
This is a much better spot for the Heat who are 14-6 ATS versus teams above-.500 (6-2 ATS at home) and an NBA’s best 12-4 ATS following a SU loss.
BET the HEAT -2.5 (-108).
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-108) for a small wager, if at all, because I much prefer the Miami side more than the total.
However, these teams have a combined 26-9 O/U record in non-conference games with a plus-6.7 ATS margin and both teams have easy ways to score points on each other.
L.A. plays at one of the fastest paces in the NBA and gets out in transition at a high frequency while Miami has a below-average defensive efficiency versus transition offense.
On the other hand, the Heat excel at getting to the charity stripe, especially Miami All-Star wing Jimmy Butler, and the Lakers are 22nd in defensive FT/FGA rate. Miami had 19 more free-throw attempts in the first Lakers-Heat meeting this season.
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