Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays World Series Game 3 odds, picks and prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays play Game 3 of the World Series Friday at Globe Life Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET. The World Series has a 2-3-2 format so the Rays will be hitting in the bottom of the inning for the next three games. Below, we analyze the Dodgers-Rays World Series Game 3 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Series: Tied 1-1.

Dodgers vs. Rays: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Buehler: 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 36 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

2020 postseason: 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA, 15 H, 29 K and 11 BB in 19 IP across 4 starts.
Career in the postseason: 2-1 with a 2.44 ERA, 36 H, 73 K and 21 BB in 55 1/3 IP over 10 starts.

Morton: 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 38 IP over 9 starts.

2020 postseason: 3-0 with a 0.57 ERA, 11 H, 17 K and 4 BB in 15 2/3 IP across 3 starts.
Career in the postseason: 7-2 with a 2.84 ERA, 45 H, 61 K and 21 BB in 57 IP over 12 games (11 starts).

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Dodgers vs. Rays: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML)

Game 3 figures to be the best starting pitching matchup of the series. Morton is a big game pitcher who beat the Dodgers (-150) in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series when he was a starter for the Houston Astros and is having the best postseason of any Rays’ pitcher.

Buehler is having a heck of a postseason himself and is no stranger to big games either. He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in eight of his 10 playoff starts and pitched 7 scoreless innings in the 2018 World Series against the Boston Red Sox. I like both of these pitchers to pitch a strong five innings and turn the game over to their bullpens with minimal damage taken.

However, my favorite stat I’ve seen in these playoffs is Tampa Bay’s MLB-high 11 double-play ground-ball outs its relievers have gotten. The Dodgers relievers have only one GIDP in these playoffs and the Rays bullpen has pitched only 2 2/3 more innings than the Dodgers.

This tells me the bullpen comes up big in high-pressure situations and gets crucial outs. Tampa Bay’s bullpen ERA is slightly lower than the Dodgers’, but the L.A. bullpen has a lower WHIP and opponent batting average.

I’ll lean to the RAYS (+135) taking a 2-1 series lead but I’d much rather be safe and take the run line.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Since I’m thinking we have a pitcher’s duel and the Rays bullpen is more trustworthy, I “LIKE” RAYS +1.5 (-139) on the run line. Tampa Bay has a 14-7 run line record as an underdog. Also, look out for one of their best fastball hitters—Willy Adames, Randy Arozarena or Brandon Lowe—to go deep.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 7.5 (-121) is the play on the total in Dodgers-Rays. The market has juiced the Under up because it’s the way to go. This is a vibe play from me in that I get the vibe we’re going to see these starting pitchers feed off each other’s performance and the bats will cool off from the first two games.

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