Game 3 of the NLCS between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers goes Wednesday with a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Globe Life Field (on FS1). This is considered a home game for the Braves in the neutral site of Arlington, Texas. Below, we analyze the Dodgers-Braves Game 3 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Braves lead 2-0.
Dodgers vs. Braves: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Julio Urias vs. RHP Kyle Wright
Urias: 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 55 IP over 11 games (10 starts).
- 2020 postseason: 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA (1 unearned run), 4 H, 11 K and 1 BB in 8 IP (2 games).
- Urias has made just two relief appearances against the Braves in his career and Atlanta hitters have just one hit off of him in 12 plate appearances.
Wright: 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9 in 38 IP across 8 starts.
- 2020 postseason: 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 3 H, 7 K and 2 BB in 6 IP (1 start).
- Wright has been in the majors for three seasons but has never pitched against the Dodgers.
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Dodgers vs. Braves: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Dodgers
- 1B Edwin Rios (groin) questionable
Braves
- OF Adam Duvall (oblique) out
Dodgers vs. Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.
Prediction
Braves 8, Dodgers 5
Money line (ML)
The Dodgers (-182) nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback with three- and four-run rallies in the bottom of the 7th and 9th innings of their 8-7 Game 2 loss. The LA-playoff woes have carried into the 2020 postseason as SP Clayton Kershaw was surprisingly scratched from his Game 2 start just hours before the first pitch due to back spasms.
The BRAVES (+160) continue to truck-stick their way right through the NL playoffs as Game 2’s victory marked their seventh in a row in the postseason (7-0).
It doesn’t show up in the winning percentages but Urias’ splits as a starter and a reliever indicate he’s much better out of the bullpen. Urias has a career 3.61 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in a starting role compared to a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in relief duty. Opposing batters hit 51 points higher and get on base 45 points higher when Urias starts vs. his bullpen appearances.
Atlanta had the best lineup in MLB this season with a ton of right-handed mashers and we’re using the hot-hand theory to BET BRAVES (+160) to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the NLCS.
New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Braves (+160) returns an $80 profit if Atlanta upsets the Dodgers.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
As much as I hate the Braves’ +1.5 (+100) run line splits, there’s too much value not to grab the run and a half of insurance. It’s even-money and we saw the Dodgers -1.5 (-121) cut the one-time Game 2 7-run lead to just a 1-run loss, so I like paying no vig for the run line.
Also, given how great Atlanta looks, I cannot help myself from BETTING BRAVES -1.5 (+300) on the alternate run line.
My play(s) on run line stuff is putting $100 on Braves +1.5 (+100) to win $100 if Atlanta wins outright or loses by a single run. Plus, I’ll splash $25 on Braves -1.5 (+300) alternate run line to win $75 should Atlanta beat the Dodgers by more than 2 runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
We gotta take OVER 9.5 (-115). The Over is 7-0-2 in the last nine Urias starts. Atlanta has scored 5 or more runs in five of its seven playoff games and I like the matchup against Urias. The Dodgers’ late rally in Game 2 might give them a jolt in and I could see a carry-over effect against a shaky Braves starter (Wright).
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