The Los Angeles Dodgers (51-31) meet the Washington Nationals (40-40) Saturday in the third game of their four-game series at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Dodgers rallied against the Nationals for the second consecutive game with a nine-run top of the 7th to key their 10-5 victory Friday. L.A. has won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 16-7.
Season series: Dodgers lead 5-0.
LHP Clayton Kershaw makes his 18th start for the Dodgers. Kershaw is 9-7 with a 3.25 ERA (102 1/3 IP, 37 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 7-1, with 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 13 K Sunday against the Chicago Cubs.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster (including playoffs): 220 at-bats with a .241/.277/.341 slash line, 60/9 K/BB, 4 HR and 11 RBIs.
RHP Paolo Espino is on the mound for the Nationals. Espino is 2-2 with a 2.02 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 over three starts and 15 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 8-4, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 3 K Monday against the New York Mets.
- No career appearances vs. current Dodgers hitters.
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Dodgers at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -2.5 (+100) | Nationals +2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Dodgers 8, Nationals 3
Money line (ML)
The only play here is to BET the DODGERS (-250) for 1 unit (not to win 1 unit) because July has been Kershaw’s best month of the year throughout his career and we’ve seen “sharp” line movement toward the Dodgers.
For instance, Kershaw has his best winning percentage, ERA, WHIP and K/BB rate in July compared to any other month in the MLB regular season.
Also, the market has already steamed L.A. up from a -165 opening line favorite to the current price point of DODGERS (-250).
If oddsmakers were comfortable with their original price they wouldn’t have moved the number 85 cents on the dollar. Plus MLB regular-season games don’t get as much action as the NBA or NFL so this live movement is jarring.
To explain the “not to win 1 unit” above: if your standard unit in sports betting is $100 then just risk that on L.A.’s money line to earn a $40 profit instead of going out of your comfort zone and betting $250 to win $100.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since we are paying a hefty price for L.A.’s money line and even if the Dodgers -2.5 (+100) get out to a five or six-run lead then we’d still have to be concerned the Nationals could “sneak in the backdoor” if L.A. uses its less effective relievers in a blowout.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-115) for a half unit because L.A. is 10-6 O/U when Kershaw starts and if he doesn’t give the Dodgers seven or more innings then maybe the scenario described in the run line section is what cashes the Over.
Furthermore, Espino is more or less an “opener” for the Nationals leading to a “bullpen day” and, while his home splits are very impressive, Espino hasn’t started against a lineup nearly as dangerous as the Dodgers.
We’ve seen L.A.’s lineup rake Washington’s bullpen in the first two games of this series and if Espino isn’t sharp early, the Dodgers might drill the Nationals.
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