The Washington Nationals (40-39) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (50-31) Friday in the second game of their four-game series at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Dodgers vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. rallied down 2-1 in the top of the 5th to score five runs and steal the first game of the series, 6-2, after the game was called following the 5th inning due to rain.
Season series: Dodgers lead 4-0.
LHP Julio Urias is making his 17th start for the Dodgers. Urias is 9-3 with a 3.95 ERA (93 1/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 12 K Saturday in L.A.’s 3-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
- Urias picked up a win April 10 vs. the Nationals, 9-5, in 5 2/3 IP with 3 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster (including the playoffs): 60 at-bats with a .350/.361/.433 slash line, 8/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.
RHP Max Scherzer is on the hill for the Nationals. Scherzer is 7-4 with a 2.14 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 across 15 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K Sunday at the Miami Marlins.
- Scherzer lost April 11 vs. the Dodgers with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K in L.A.’s 3-0 win.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (including the playoffs): 111 at-bats with a .162/.260/.351 slash line, 40/13 K/BB, 5 HR and 10 RBIs.
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Dodgers at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Nationals +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+135) | Nationals +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Nationals 6, Dodgers 3
Money line (ML)
BET the NATIONALS (+100) for 1 unit because Washington’s lineup is one of the best vs. left-handed pitching and Scherzer is an ace who still has electric stuff whereas Urias is more of a “middle of the rotation” starter.
For instance, the Nationals hitters are top-10 in both wRC+ and wOBA against LHP. Also, Scherzer has nine quality starts and has given up two or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 15 starts while Urias has seven quality starts and has given up three or more runs in seven of his 16 outings.
Furthermore, I’d prefer to “fade the market” rather than follow it with L.A. being steamed up 30 cents on the dollar from +110 opening line underdog to the current price, according to Pregame.com.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS -1.5 (+200) ALTERNATE RUN LINE for a quarter unit – if at all – because Urias didn’t have his best stuff last month and I think this Washington lineup can get to him early.
In June, Urias gave up more than two home runs per nine innings, had a lower K-BB% than his 2021 average and 4.74 FIP (3.49 FIP for the season).
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8 (-105) for a one-third unit because the presumed “sharp” money is barreling into the Over while a majority of the “public” action is on the Under with most of the situational trends suggesting a lower-scoring affair.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the money wagered on the Dodgers-Nationals total is on the Over whereas more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Under. Typically, it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction of the public.
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