The San Diego Padres (68-59) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (79-47) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. won the first game of the series 5-2 thanks to a gutty performance by the Dodgers’ pitching staff that walked 6 batters but allowed just 3 hits and struck out 9.
Season series: Padres lead 7-4.
RHP Walker Buehler is on the hill for the Dodgers. Buehler is 13-2 with a 2.11 ERA (162 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 25 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 8 K vs. the New York Mets Friday.
- Buehler has taken two no-decisions against San Diego this season with a 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 13 K in two starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (121 PA): 4.37 FIP with a .196 batting average (BA), .266 wOBA, .504 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.4 K% and 90.8 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Blake Snell is San Diego’s projected starter. Snell is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA (106 1/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 23 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 9 K Friday vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.
- Snell is 1-0 against L.A. this year with a 2.35 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 7 BB and 19 K in three starts.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (95 PA): 2.92 FIP with a .207 BA, .280 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 35.8 K% and 90.0 mph EV.
Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:27 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+111) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Dodgers 4, Padres 2
Money line (ML)
TAKE the DODGERS (-155) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in both starting pitching and hitting and even L.A.’s bullpen has been lights out following the All-Star break.
Snell has pitched well against the Dodgers this year but Buehler is the odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young and can start to lock that award down as fall nears.
L.A. is 8-2 on the road when Buehler starts with a plus-26.9% return on investment and an average money line of -182. So I’d argue that we are getting a good deal on the DODGERS (-155).
Also, there’s been sharp line movement towards L.A. as the Dodgers opened as -130 money line favorite but have been steamed up to the current number by both the pros and joes.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Snell has pitched well against L.A. this season, these teams have already played on four one-run games this year and the Dodgers are just 30-31 ATS as a road favorite.
Moreover, the Dodgers -1.5 (+111) isn’t a big enough payout considering the spot.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) for a half unit since the Padres are 2-8 O/U at home when Snell starts, 1-5 O/U as a home underdog and San Diego’s Petco Park has the seventh-lowest runs scored by park factor. I am only “leaning” to the Under because I much prefer the L.A. money line.
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