The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-47) start a three-game series against the NL West rival San Diego Padres (68-58) at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A.’s 7-2 loss to the New York Mets Sunday snapped a nine-game winning streak. The Dodgers have won 16 of their past 20 games and are 2.5 games back of the first-place San Francisco Giants in the NL West.
San Diego has lost eight of the last 10 games and trails the Cincinnati Reds by 1 game for the second NL Wild Card berth.
Season series: Padres lead 7-3.
LHP Julio Urias is L.A.’s projected starter. Urias is 13-3 with a 3.29 ERA (139 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 24 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 5 K in 6-5 victory at the New York Mets Aug. 13.
- Urias lost at San Diego 6-2 June 21 with 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 road splits: 10-2 with a 2.88 ERA (81 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 5.5 K/BB in 14 starts.
Padres RHP Pierce Johnson will make his first career start. Johnson is 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 in 48 relief appearances.
- 2021 August splits: 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 5 BB and 13 K in nine outings.
- 2021 home splits: 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA (21 IP, 4 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB rate in 23 appearances.
- 2021 vs. Dodgers: 0-1 with a 20.25 ERA (1 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K in three outings.
Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:46 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Padres +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Padres 5, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Padres (+120) since I see value in San Diego’s run line in this spot and the presumed “sharp” money is on the Padres.
Roughly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on San Diego, while 80% of the action is on L.A. (according to Pregame.com), Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money instead of the public in sports gambling.
What’s holding me back from sprinkling on San Diego’s money line, despite the Padres being 7-3 vs. the Dodgers this year, is these teams are trending in opposite directions with L.A. looking like the defending champs.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the PADRES +1.5 (-135) for 1 unit because San Diego is 14-7 ATS as an underdog and we have significant “reverse line movement.”
A vast majority of the bets placed are on L.A.’s run line, but oddsmakers have steamed the Dodgers’ run line down from -125 on the opener to the current price.
With San Diego’s back against the wall, I’m expecting an outright victory, but the PADRES +1.5 (-135) is the best bet in this contest.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because the Padres are 1-5 O/U as home underdogs with an average score of 4.5-2.3 and we have an obvious line freeze in the betting market.
Almost 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged from the 8.5-run opener (according to Pregame.com).
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