The Los Angeles Dodgers (95-54) meet the Cincinnati Reds (77-72) Sunday for their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincinnati took the opener 3-1. Los Angeles won 5-1 Saturday behind a masterful pitching performance from NL Cy Young front runner Max Scherzer, who had 7 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw makes his 20th start of the season. Kershaw is 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA (110 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5-1 home win over the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday with 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- Kershaw picked up an 8-0 win against Cincy April 28 with 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 2.97 FIP with a .141 batting average (BA), .212 wOBA, .231 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 36.0 K% and 82.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 86 plate appearances (PA).
LHP Wade Miley is Cincy’s projected starter. Miley is 12-6 with a 3.09 ERA (160 IP, 55 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 27 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-5, with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and 1 K Tuesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.93 FIP with a .268 BA, .326 wOBA, .457 xSLG, 21.7 K% and 89.6 mph EV in 106 PA.
Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:14 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-117) | Reds +1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Dodgers 6, Reds 3
Money line (ML)
L.A. has so many clear edges across the board that I cannot even think about Cincy’s money line in this spot, but the Dodgers (-200) are a little too expensive.
Also, this is only Kershaw’s second start back from IL stint and I’d like to see some more of him before risking two times my return on a money line.
PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the DODGERS -1.5 (-117) because, if Kershaw knocked the rust off in his previous start, L.A. has a massive advantage in this matchup.
Cincy’s lineup is terrible against left-handed pitching: 29th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA and 24th-fewest home runs hit.
Additionally, we are getting “sharp line movement” toward L.A., which opened at a -107 consensus run line but has been moved up because early bettors hammered the DODGERS -1.5.
We don’t need vintage Kershaw because the Reds have been struggling at the plate recently. In September, Cincy’s lineup is in the bottom 10 of several advanced hitting metrics including wRC+, wOBA and WAR.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a tiny wager because I’m much more confident in the Dodgers covering than the total.
Miley might not have the most eye-popping numbers, but he induces soft contact and ranks in the 94th percentile in EV, 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 78th percentile in chase rate. Plus, Cincy’s bullpen has been lights out this month.
The combination of Kershaw on the mound, Cincy’s struggles against left-handed pitching and sneaky strong pitching from the Reds equals a small bet on UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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