Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (95-54) meet the Cincinnati Reds (77-72) Sunday for their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park with the first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati took the opener 3-1. Los Angeles won 5-1 Saturday behind a masterful pitching performance from NL Cy Young front runner Max Scherzer, who had 7 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 7 K.

Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw makes his 20th start of the season. Kershaw is 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA (110 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5-1 home win over the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday with 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • Kershaw picked up an 8-0 win against Cincy April 28 with 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 2.97 FIP with a .141 batting average (BA), .212 wOBA, .231 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 36.0 K% and 82.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 86 plate appearances (PA).

LHP Wade Miley is Cincy’s projected starter. Miley is 12-6 with a 3.09 ERA (160 IP, 55 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 27 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-5, with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and 1 K Tuesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.93 FIP with a .268 BA, .326 wOBA, .457 xSLG, 21.7 K% and 89.6 mph EV in 106 PA.

Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:14 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-117) | Reds +1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Dodgers 6, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

L.A. has so many clear edges across the board that I cannot even think about Cincy’s money line in this spot, but the Dodgers (-200) are a little too expensive.

Also, this is only Kershaw’s second start back from IL stint and I’d like to see some more of him before risking two times my return on a money line.

PASS. 

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the DODGERS -1.5 (-117) because, if Kershaw knocked the rust off in his previous start, L.A. has a massive advantage in this matchup.

Cincy’s lineup is terrible against left-handed pitching: 29th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA and 24th-fewest home runs hit.

Additionally, we are getting “sharp line movement” toward L.A., which opened at a -107 consensus run line but has been moved up because early bettors hammered the DODGERS -1.5.

We don’t need vintage Kershaw because the Reds have been struggling at the plate recently. In September, Cincy’s lineup is in the bottom 10 of several advanced hitting metrics including wRC+, wOBA and WAR.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a tiny wager because I’m much more confident in the Dodgers covering than the total.

Miley might not have the most eye-popping numbers, but he induces soft contact and ranks in the 94th percentile in EV, 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 78th percentile in chase rate. Plus, Cincy’s bullpen has been lights out this month.

The combination of Kershaw on the mound, Cincy’s struggles against left-handed pitching and sneaky strong pitching from the Reds equals a small bet on UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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