The Cincinnati Reds (77-71) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (94-54) for the second of their three-game series Saturday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cincy won the series opener Friday 3-1 as starting RHP Luis Castillo had 6 1/3 IP with 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 10 K and Reds SS Kyle Farmer‘s 6th-inning 2-run double put the game out of reach.
Season series: Reds lead 3-1.
RHP Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Dodgers. Scherzer is 14-4 with a 2.17 ERA (162 IP, 34 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 across 27 starts for the Dodgers and the Washington Nationals.
- Last outing: Win, 8-0, with 8 IP, 1 H, 0 BB and 9 K against the San Diego Padres.
- Scherzer beat Cincy May 25, 2-1, while pitching for Washington with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 2.70 FIP with a .183 batting average (BA), .251 wOBA, .337 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 34.1 K% and 89.4 mph exit velocity (EV) in 205 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Sonny Gray is Cincy’s projected starter. Gray is 7-7 with a 3.80 ERA (120 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 23 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-0, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sunday at the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Gray lost at L.A., 8-0, April 28 with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 11 K.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.01 FIP with a .202 BA, .250 wOBA, .292 xSLG, 23.9 K% and 87.4 mph EV in 109 PA.
Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Reds +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Reds +1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Dodgers 6, Reds 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a heavy “lean” on the Dodgers (-210) just because they are the right side since L.A. has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting).
However, the Dodgers is on the fringe of my price range, and if I were to bet L.A.’s money line I’d most likely be including it in a parlay with another similarly priced favorite.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET DODGERS -1.5 (-125) for 1 unit because Scherzer has pitched well in Cincy, Gray has been less effective at home this season and there has been “sharp line movement” in L.A.’s direction.
Scherzer has won all three of his career starts at the Great American Ball Park. He has only allowed 1 ER in his 20 IP at Cincy’s home ballpark with a 35/6 K/BB rate.
In fact, Scherzer is dialed in as the Dodgers hit the home stretch of their season. Since joining L.A. at the trade deadline, Scherzer is 6-0 with a 0.88 ERA and a 14.4 K/BB rate and is now the favorite to win the NL Cy Young.
Furthermore, Gray has a losing home record with a 4.65 ERA (2.97 road ERA), 1.25 WHIP (1.12 road WHIP) and has given up 11 home runs in 12 home starts (five home runs allowed in 11 road starts).
Lastly, according to Pregame.com, L.A.’s run line opened with roughly a -110 consensus price-point because both sides of the market bet this line up.
Let’s follow the “pros” and “joes” on the DODGERS -1.5 (-125) before this price gets out of control.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) only because I’m fearful L.A.’s explosive lineup can do some real damage to Gray, and if this game is out of reach Cincy might use its less effective relievers.
That said, if Gray doesn’t get raked too badly, he’ll turn the game over to a Cincy bullpen that has pitched very well this month. For instance, Cincy’s bullpen has the best xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. Also, both lineups rank below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR this month.
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