The Los Angeles Dodgers (94-53) travel to the Great American Ball Park Friday to begin a three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds (76-71) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Reds lead 2-1.
RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA (186 IP, 48 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 29 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres.
- Buehler got a no-decision against Cincy with 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 10 K in L.A.’s 6-5 loss April 27.
- vs. Reds on the current roster (70 PA): 2.73 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .269 wOBA, .398 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.6 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Luis Castillo makes his 31st start for the Reds. Castillo is 7-15 with a 4.24 ERA (170 IP, 80 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision in Cincy’s 6-4 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday with 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: (37 PA): 2.47 FIP with a .188 BA, .265 wOBA, .296 xSLG, 37.8 K% and 84.6 mph EV.
Dodgers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U:-112)
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Prediction
Reds 4, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds (+140) because I like them on the run line and Castillo has been at his best in September throughout his career while Buehler’s September numbers have been subpar.
September is Castillo’s best month by winning percentage (62.5%), ERA (2.60) and WHIP (0.97) of any monthly split throughout his career. On the other hand, September is Buehler’s second-worst month by ERA (3.52) and WHIP (1.09) and worst by K/BB (3.2).
Ultimately, Cincy’s run line is the better play because the Reds are playing their standard fall baseball (5-9 in September) and L.A. is heating up as the postseason nears (10-4 in September).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the REDS +1.5 (-120) since there’s an obvious “line freeze” in the betting market but Cincy is just 3-9 ATS as a home underdog.
Roughly 95% of the action is on L.A.’s run line according to pregame.com, but the consensus price hasn’t budged, which is a red flag. You’d think oddsmakers would be making the Dodgers a little more expensive but sportsbooks seem to be enticing more L.A. action. Let’s jump on the same side as the house.
Over/Under (O/U)
GIMME UNDER 8.5 (-112) because Cincy has struggled at the plate in September, but has been the best bullpen in baseball this month and Buehler is a pitcher I’ve been high on for years now.
Cincy’s bullpen is leading the majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. However, Reds hitters rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, WAR, wOBA and hard-hit rate over that span. Also, Buehler has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 29 starts this season and has 25 quality starts.
Furthermore, there’s more money on the Under but more bets placed on the Over so the Under feels like the sharper play. That said, the Over is more expensive, which suggests the House is trying to goad more pro-Under bets.
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