The Los Angeles Clippers (11-11) square off with arena-mate Los Angeles Lakers (12-11) Friday at the Staples Center. The tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET, and the Lakers are technically the “home team”. Below, we look at the Clippers vs. Lakers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
The Clippers have lost four of their last five (0-5 ATS) including three straight games to the Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, and Sacramento Kings. All of these were home games. The Clippers are 9-13 ATS and 10-12 O/U with the 13th-best net rating.
The Lakers have won back-to-back games over the Detroit Pistons and Sacramento Kings entering Friday. LeBron James missed L.A.’s last game after being added to the NBA’s COVID list due to a false positive test. The Lakers are 8-15 ATS and 13-9-1 O/U with the 23rd-ranked net rating.
The Clippers have won five of their last seven games against the Lakers including all three regular-season meetings last year and the Clippers are 6-1 ATS over that span.
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Clippers at Lakers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Clippers +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Lakers -130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread (ATS): Clippers +1.5 (-105) | Lakers -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Clippers at Lakers key injuries
Clippers
- SF Nicolas Batum (illness) out
- SF Kawhi Leonard (knee) out
Lakers
- PF Anthony Davis (thumb) questionable
- SF LeBron James (health and safety protocols) active
- SG Avery Bradley (thumb) questionable
Clippers at Lakers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Clippers 114, Lakers 109
Money line
GIMME the CLIPPERS (+105) for 1.25 units because, simply put, they are the better team with the best player on the floor.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time from its stat tracking, the Clippers are more efficient than the Lakers by 5.1 points per 100 possessions.
Furthermore, the Clippers are 25th in win differential (minus-1.4) while the Lakers are first in win differential (plus-2.8). Essentially, the Clippers have one fewer win than they should and the Lakers have nearly three more wins than their efficiency differential indicates.
Also, according to ShotQuality.com, the Clippers have the eighth-best adjusted shot quality differential whereas the Lakers are 21st in that same metric.
Most importantly, Paul George will be the best player on the floor in the Clippers-Lakers game.
Since PG arrived in L.A., he’s averaging 25.2 points per game vs. the Lakers on 70.2% true shooting (.551/.477/.902) and there’s no one on the Lakeshow that can guard PG. The Clippers have several ball handlers that can create their own shot and the Lakers have perhaps the worst perimeter defense in the NBA.
Lastly, the Lakers were getting 2.5 points on the lookahead line but the market has steamed them up to the current price. In fact, according to the Yahoo! Sports App, 97% of the action at the time of publishing is on the Lakers’ money line.
The CLIPPERS (+105) is my favorite play on the NBA’s Friday slate.
Against the spread
PASS because the Clipshow‘s spread doesn’t offer much insurance for their money line.
However, if money keeps pouring in on the Lakers and the Clippers get 2.5 points at tip-off then I might bet the Clippers plus the points heavier than the money line.
Either way, the Clippers are the right side here.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 218.5 (-112) because both teams play a high-frequency of transition offense and the Clippers struggle in fastbreak defense. That’s my case for the Lakers possibly scoring 110 points.
My case for the Clippers scoring is the Lakers’ inability to stay in front of ball handlers and the Lakers’ defense ranking bottom-5 in second-chance points, fastbreak points, and paint points allowed per game.
That said, a vast majority of the market is hammering the Over and the total has increased from the 217-point opener.
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