The 4-seed Los Angeles Clippers hope to even their Western Conference First Round playoff series with the Dallas Mavericks Sunday at American Airlines Center before heading back to L.A. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Clippers-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
L.A. got back into this series by rallying back from a 19-point first-quarter deficit to beat Dallas 118-108 in Game 3. The Clippers covered as 3-point road favorites.
The Clippers’ dynamic duo crushed the Mavs Friday as SF Kawhi Leonard and SG Paul George combined for 65 points on 68.6% shooting (24-for-35).
Mavs PG Luka Doncic continued his sensational play, scoring 44 points on 53.6% shooting with 9 rebounds and 9 assists.
Clippers at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Clippers -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Mavericks +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Clippers -3.5 (-110) | Mavericks +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 220.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Clippers at Mavericks: Key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Serge Ibaka (back) questionable
Clippers
- PG Luka Doncic (neck) questionable
- PF Maxi Kleber (Achilles) probable
- SG JJ Redick (Achilles) out
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Clippers at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Clippers 114, Mavericks 104
Money line (ML)
TAKE the CLIPPERS (-160) for 1 unit because the Mavs can’t rely on anyone other than Doncic and the L.A. stars are getting whatever they want in this series.
Dallas C Kristaps Porziņģis is putting up only 14.3 points per game on 42.9% shooting and the other role players’ hot 3-point shooting is unsustainable.
Also, Leonard and George are combining for 61 points per game on 56.8% shooting and the Clippers have only one other player scoring double digits per game in this series.
Furthermore, the Clippers have been getting dragged in the media for dropping the first two games of the series but they are leading in three of the “four factors” (turnover, offensive rebounding and FT/FGA rates).
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on Clippers -3.5 (-110) and stick with L.A.’s money line despite the predicted score because I’m wary this game comes down to the final possession and prefer not to fuss with the points.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 220.5 (-105) for a half unit. The Clippers-Mavericks series is the slowest paced of the postseason and the market is overreacting to shooting that should regress back to the mean.
For example, nearly 80% of the money wagered is on the Over, according to Pregame.com, and it’s typically profitable to fade such a one-sided market in sports betting.
Based on the flow of these Clippers-Mavericks games, one bad shooting quarter for either team is enough to keep this game Under the total.
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