The Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) travel east to face the Atlanta Falcons (4-4) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Chargers vs. Falcons odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
After starting the season 6-0 against the spread (ATS), the Falcons have failed to cover the last 2 games. While this is bad for bettors, the Falcons can’t complain as their 4-4 straight-up (SU) record is good enough for 1st place in the NFC South.
After a tough 37-34 victory against Carolina in overtime last Sunday as 4.5-point home favorites, the Falcons will look to gain another win in this matchup of strength on weakness.
The Chargers are coming off a bye, but not even a week off will help their run defense which ranks 31st in the NFL — allowing 5.7 yards per carry. With the Falcons averaging 158.1 yards per game — ranking 5th in the NFL — they’ll look to slow this game down and allow QB Marcus Mariota and RB Tyler Allgeier a chance to make things happen.
The key to this game will be the Falcons defense. It will have to slow down Chargers QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler and WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen (if healthy enough to play) for the Falcons to win this game.
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Chargers at Falcons odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Chargers -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Falcons +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chargers -3 (-115) | Falcons +3 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Chargers at Falcons key injuries
Chargers
- WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) questionable
- OLB Joey Bosa (groin) out — injured reserve (IR)
- RB Austin Ekeler (abdomen) questionable
- CB J.C. Jackson knee out — IR
- WR Mike Williams (ankle) out
Falcons
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) out — IR
- CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) questionable
- OL Elijah Wilkinson (knee) questionable
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Chargers at Falcons picks and predictions
Prediction
Chargers 27, Falcons 23
Moneyline
PASS.
The -165 for the Chargers is just a bit too high to wager on here. Instead, let’s focus on the spread below.
Against the spread
BET CHARGERS -3 (-115).
Coming off a bye week, Los Angeles will be refreshed heading to Atlanta.
The Falcons are coming off the difficult 3-point, OT win against the visiting Panthers and might be without All-Pro CB Terrell. If he’s out, the Falcons will be at a disadvantage against a team with Herbert at QB.
Neither defense is anything to write home about.
If the Chargers’ line climbs to -4 or higher, I will avoid. But at -3 (-115), this is my FAVORITE PLAY for this game.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 50 (-108).
As mentioned, both teams can score and neither defense is particularly good. The Falcons will be able to run on the Chargers’ terrible run defense and the Chargers’ pass game will feast on the Falcons defense, especially if it’s missing Terrell.
Points should be aplenty in this game. If the line were lower than 50, it would be a great play, but at 50 (-108), it’s just a LEAN.
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