The Seattle Mariners (47-42) host the Los Angeles Angels (44-43) Saturday at T-Mobile Park for the second game of their three-game set. First pitch will be at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle stormed back from a 3-run deficit to beat L.A. 7-3 in the first game of the series Friday thanks to a grand slam by DH Mitch Haniger in the bottom of the eighth inning.
Season series: Mariners lead 5-3.
LHP Patrick Sandoval is on the rubber for the Angels. He is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA (49 IP, 21 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 across eight starts and three relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 5 BB and 7 K in L.A.’s 6-5 victory over the Baltimore Orioles Sunday.
- Sandoval lost to the Mariners (9-5) June 6 with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 10 K.
- 2021 road stats: 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA (18 IP, 9 ER), 7 BB and 15 K over three starts and one relief appearance.
RHP Chris Flexen makes his 16th start for the Mariners. He is 7-3 with a 3.80 ERA (85 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 5 K Sunday against the Texas Rangers.
- Flexen took a no-decision against L.A. earlier this season with a stat line of 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 0 K in Seattle’s 7-4 win.
- 2021 home stats: 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 4.6 K/BB rate across nine starts.
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Angels at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Angels -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Angels -1.5 (+140) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Mariners 4, Angels 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the MARINERS (-105) for 1.25 units because Flexen has been one of the more profitable starting pitchers to bet on this season. Seattle is 11-4 in games he starts and Flexen has been lights out at home.
Furthermore, the Mariners are 28-19 at home, 17-12 against left-handed starters and 19-8 in one-run games.
Finally, this is one of the few instances in MLB regular-season betting where I’m looking to “fade the market” because I have a hunch Angels DH Shohei Ohtani‘s superstardom gets the public to bet on the Angels.
According to Pregame.com, more than 50% of the cash wagered has been on L.A. but oddsmakers haven’t moved the opening line much.
It would appear as if the House is OK booking Angels bets and will be rooting for the Mariners Saturday. Let’s roll with the House and BET the MARINERS (-105) for 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Seattle’s listed run line is a little too rich for my blood and the Mariners -1.5 (+190) on the alternate run line is a no-go since Seattle is 5-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with a minus-1.9 run line margin.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for one-third of a unit because the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under despite a majority of the situational trends pointing to a higher scoring affair and these teams having a combined 15-8 O/U record when these starters take the mound.
Not only is it typically wiser to follow the money in sports betting, especially when it’s opposite of where the public is betting, but Seattle’s ballpark is a notoriously pitcher-friendly venue.
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