The Los Angeles Angels (13-12) meet the Seattle Mariners (15-13) Sunday for the rubber match of their three-game series at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Dylan Bundy gets the start for the Angels Sunday. Bundy is 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA (30 IP, 14 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 across 5 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K in L.A.’s 4-2 win at the Houston Astros April 25.
- Career vs. the Mariners: 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.87 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 over 5 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- Vs. Mariners on current roster: 51 at-bats with a .176/.250/.294 slash line, 1 HR and 4 RBIs.
- Career at Seattle’s ballpark: 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA (17 IP, 5 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance.
LHP Justus Sheffield makes his fifth start Sunday for the Mariners. Sheffield is 1-2 with a 5.32 ERA (22 IP, 13 ER), 1.59 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 this season.
- Last outing: Loss in 5 1/3 IP with 4 ER, 12 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Seattle’s 5-2 loss at the Astros Monday.
- Career vs. the Angels: 0-2 with an 11.74 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 2.09 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 in 2 starts last season.
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Angels at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Angels -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125) |
- Against the spread/ATS: Angels -1.5 (+105) | Mariners +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Angels 6, Mariners 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the ANGELS (-155) for a three-fourths unit because of the vig and I’d like to parse my L.A. bet between its money line and run line.
That being said, the Angels have two bona-fide MVP candidates raking in CF Mike Trout and DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, and the 2019 NL MVP in 3B Anthony Rendon, whose Statcast metrics suggest he’s due for a breakout.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Bundy is L.A.’s ace and despite his ho-hum ERA, he does have a lower FIP and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are far better than the MLB average.
Furthermore, Statcast grades Bundy out in the 94th percentile of chase%, 92nd percentile of fastball spin rate—which is huge because the four-seam fastball is Bundy’s most used—and the 76th percentile of expected wOBA.
Also, L.A. lineup’s advanced hitting metrics against left-handed pitching is rather mediocre so far this season, but the Angels have drilled Sheffield in both of his starts against them in 2020.
BET ANGELS -1.5 (+105) for a half unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS on the total since I like the Angels lineup vs. Sheffield, but these teams are a combined 2-7 O/U with these two starters on the mound and we are betting L.A.’s run line in part because of the expectation Bundy pitches a quality start.
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