The New York Yankees (34-15) host the Los Angeles Angels (27-23) Wednesday at Yankee Stadium for the 2nd of their 3-game set with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. crushed L.A. in the series opener 9-1 thanks to 6 extra-base hits including 4 doubles and 2 home runs by newly acquired Yankees DH Matt Carpenter and C Jose Trevino.
Angels at Yankees projected starters
LHP Reid Detmers vs. LHP Nestor Cortes
Detmers is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 40 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Lost 7-2 at home May 25 vs. the Texas Rangers with 6 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 road splits: 0-0 with an 8.49 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 13 H, 2 HR, 5 BB and 11 K.
Cortes is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 53 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Won 7-2 Thursday at the Tampa Bay Rays with 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
Angels at Yankees odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:38 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Angels +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Yankees -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-140) | Yankees -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Angels at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Angels 2
Money line
BET the YANKEES (-180) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Angels (+145) and have been steamed from a -161 (per Pregame.com) opener up to the current number.
N.Y. priced less than -200 with Cortes on the bump is too good to pass up. Cortes has been one of the AL’s best starters and is a shoo-in for the All-Star Game whereas Detmers is making his 1st career start in Yankee Stadium.
According to Statcast, Cortes grades in the 93rd percentile or better in expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line and his cutter is tied for 21st in run value at minus-7 across 1,527 tracked pitches.
On the other hand, Detmers grades in the 47th percentile in xBA, 38th percentile in xwOBA, 25th percentile in xSLG and 17th percentile in whiff rate, per Statcast. Also, Detmers has gotten raked on the road this season (stats included above).
N.Y. is 11-5 overall against lefty starters while L.A. is just 8-7 and the Yankees rank higher than the Angels vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (114-110), wOBA (.324-.319) and hard-hit rate (31.8-30.0%).
BET the YANKEES (-180).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN YANKEES -1.5 (+115) because 5 of their 7 wins with Cortes as the starter have been by at least 2 runs and the Angels +1.5 (-140) are just 3-4 RL as road underdogs.
But, New York’s ML is expensive and there isn’t a lot of value in this RL so it’s just a LEAN to the YANKEES -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under
PASS.
Angels-Yankees opened with an 8.5-run total but the market has hammered the Under causing the drop in price.
However, L.A. is 4-0 O/U in the last 4 road games, N.Y. is 4-0 O/U in the last 4 home games vs. teams with a winning record and Angels-Yankees have gone Over the total in 5 of their last 7 meetings.
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