The Minnesota Twins (42-56) host the Los Angeles Angels (47-49) Saturday at Target Field for the third game of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams split the first two meetings with L.A. winning the series opener 3-2 and Minnesota taking Friday’s game, 5-4.
Season series: Angels lead 3-2.
LHP Patrick Sandoval is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA (63 IP, 27 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 over 10 starts and three relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-4, with 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 9 K Sunday against the Seattle Mariners.
- 2021 road stats: 1-1 with a 3.96 ERA (25 IP, 11 ER), 1.24 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB rate in four starts and one relief outing.
RHP Jose Berrios is on the rubber for the Twins. He is 7-4 with a 3.69 ERA (114 2/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 19 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-3, with 6 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K Monday at the Chicago White Sox.
- Berrios beat L.A. May 20 with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Minnesota’s 6-3 road win.
- vs. Angels on the current roster (49 PA): 4.03 FIP with a .200 batting average, .293 wOBA, .453 expected slugging percentage, 28.6 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity.
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Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Angels +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Angels +1.5 (-185) | Twins -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Twins 5, Angels 2
Money line (ML)
TAKE the TWINS (-130) because Berrios has pitched better at home than on the road throughout his career and we have a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money backing Minnesota.
Berrios is 32-19 at home in his career, compared to 23-23 on the road. He has a 3.59 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB at home against a 4.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB on the road.
Also, L.A.’s lineup is far less productive on the road. The Angels score 4.04 runs per game on the road, compared to 5.53 runs per game at home. They’ve hit 30 fewer home runs on the road in just two fewer games and have a .696 road OPS compared to an .819 home OPS.
Furthermore, more than 80% of the cash wagered is on the Twins but nearly 60% of the public is backing the Angels, according to Pregame.com. Generally, it’s smarter to follow the money in sports betting, especially when it’s contrary to the crowd.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I’m leaning toward the Under in Angels-Twins and Minnesota has the fourth-worst cover rate as a home favorite at 10-24 ATS.
Over/Under (O/U)
We’ve already discussed L.A.’s hitting futility away from Angel Stadium and Berrios’ effectiveness at home but there are a couple other factors as to why I “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-115) for a half unit.
First of all, Sandoval’s pitching peripherals are fairly impressive. He grades in the 73rd percentile or better in hard-contact rate, EV, expected wOBA, xSLG, whiff rate and chase rate.
Plus this is also a “pros vs. Joes” situation with more than 80% of the money on the Under but more than three-quarters of the public backing the Over.
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