The Los Angeles Angels (70-73) and Chicago White Sox (82-61) open a three-game set Tuesday at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Angels vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Angels LHP Packy Naughton (0-1) makes his third start and fifth appearance. He has allowed 4 earned runs on 13 hits and 7 walks with 9 strikeouts through 14 innings.
- Allowed 2 hits with 2 walks and 5 strikeouts over 5 scoreless frames Sept. 7 at the San Diego Padres in his last start.
- Was 2-2 with a 4.90 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 60 2/3 IP spanning 10 starts and four relief appearances for Double-A and Triple-A this season.
White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.69 ERA) is projected to make his 28th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 158 1/3 IP.
- Making his first start since Aug. 31 after spending a short stint on the 10-day injured list due to a hamstring injury.
- Ranks in the 79th percentile or better in HardHit%, K%, xERA, xwOBA and Whiff%
Angels at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Angels +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | White Sox -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Angels +2.5 (-130) | White Sox -2.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
White Sox 5, Angels 3
Money line (ML)
The White Sox are one of the league’s best hitting teams against left-handed pitching. Chicago is fourth in wRC+ and sixth by OPS and wOBA against southpaws and should be able to get to Naughton. On the flip side, the Angels rank in the bottom half of the league against right-handed pitching.
Giolito has reportedly been throwing at max effort and had numerous bullpen sessions without incident. He should be fine to handle near his normal workload in his return from the injured list.
With that in mind, despite the White Sox likely being the right side, the line is just too steep to consider as a stand-alone wager.
PASS on the money line and look elsewhere for value.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Naughton is unlikely to go deep into the game as his longest MLB outing was 5 innings last time out. That isn’t a good thing for Los Angeles. While the Angels bullpen’s surface ERA has looked fine in September their xFIP and SIERA rank 20th and 21st, respectively, and they are also 21st in K-BB%.
There’s a chance Giolito doesn’t go as deep as he’s capable in his return from the IL, but that doesn’t spell as serious of a situation for the White Sox. Chicago’s bullpen is second in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% this month.
If the Angels fall behind early they’re likely to have a difficult time getting back in it.
I don’t usually care to get behind 2.5-run spreads though, so I’m taking the ALTERNATE RUN LINE of WHITE SOX -1.5 (-135).
Over/Under (O/U)
Chicago has an excellent starting pitcher going, and he’s backed by a terrific bullpen. Los Angeles is going to have its work cut out for it to generate a lot of offense.
The White sox have faced some issues of their own at the plate and have produced just 22 runs over their last seven games. While I anticipate them taking this one I don’t necessarily feel like a sudden offensive outburst is in the cards.
No one on their roster has seen Naughton before so that may give him the upper hand – at least the first time through the order.
I’ve got a “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-130)
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