Through eight games, the pairing between the Rams and Matthew Stafford has gone even better than expected. The team is 7-1, Stafford leads the NFL in net yards per attempt and QBR, and is in the midst of the best season of his career.
It’s very possible that Stafford will go on to win league MVP in his first season with the Rams, which would be remarkable even after all the hype he generated this offseason. And if recent history is any indicator of how the ongoing MVP race will end, Stafford is on track to be the winner.
According to Next Gen Stats, Stafford leads the NFL in pass EPA (+114.3), nearly double the next-closest quarterback, Dak Prescott (+62.2). In each of the last five years, the leader in pass EPA was also the winner of the MVP award.
The chart is amazing to look at, too, because the gap between Stafford and Prescott is bigger than the gap between Prescott and the 16th quarterback in pass EPA (expected points added).
So it’s Stafford and then everyone else.
MVP Seasons (Pass EPA, NFL Rank)
2016: Matt Ryan (+184.0, 1st)
2017: Tom Brady (+132.9, 1st)
2018: Patrick Mahomes (+195.1, 1st)
2019: Lamar Jackson (+132.9, 1st)
2020: Aaron Rodgers (+170.8, 1st)#NFL— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 4, 2021
We’re only halfway through the season so there’s a lot of football left to be played, but Stafford should be considered one of the favorites to win MVP, right there with Tom Brady, Josh Allen and Prescott.
All of them are playing at a very high level and should be in the MVP conversation the rest of the way.
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