We’ve reached the final game of the regular season. For the first time in too long, it won’t mean the end of the Detroit Lions’ season.
The Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18. It’s the Vikings team they beat in Minnesota two weeks ago to clinch the NFC North title and a home playoff game next weekend. That makes the Sunday morning coffee in no need of any sweetener.
This is a weird game, what with the Vikings still (barely) alive for a wild card spot and the Lions with very little to play for other than pride. This is one for folks to bet on at extreme peril.
Why I think the Lions will win
- Controlled fury finally gets a chance to be unleashed on an opponent. The officiating slight at the end of the Week 17 loss to the Cowboys is a chip for the Lions to play. That’s a powerful force, the mentality of looking to avenge being wronged.
- The Vikings are really banged up. No T.J. Hockenson, who was injured in the meeting two weeks ago. A hobbled offensive line that could be down three regular starters. Aside from the attrition, it fosters a lack of chemistry and communication. Switching quarterbacks once again doesn’t help the cohesion for Minnesota, regardless of how they might feel about Nick Mullens.
- The Vikings couldn’t defend the middle of the field in the last meeting. Nothing in Brian Flores’ defensive style indicates that they’ll change things up dramatically to make Jared Goff work more outside. Flores is all about pressure and confusion. The Lions and Goff handle that better than most teams do.
- There is still a chance for the No. 2 seed and the potential of another guaranteed home playoff game if they win next weekend. Dan Campbell has indicated the starters will play, too.
What worries me about the Vikings
- Mullens isn’t shy about attacking over the top of the defense. He threw for over 400 yards in the Week 16 meeting and could do so again. With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn, he’s got three wideouts who can all win deep. The Lions have massive issues defending passing offenses with only one deep threat.
- I worry about the Lions coaching staff scheming this game more like a preseason game in order to not show anything for the postseason games. I don’t consider that a bad thing, either; the goal is to win next weekend and get there without losing any players to injury. If that means trying long field goals instead of going for it on 4th-and-3 from the 33-yard line, or shelving the tricky offensive plays and complex blitzes on defense, so be it. Because the coaching staff has never bene here before, it’s an unknown variable.
- The Vikings do still have something to play for, albeit an extremely long shot to make the playoffs. They also have the potential to avoid finishing outright last place in the NFC North a year after winning the division. With a coaching staff that is expected to return and most of the key players coming back, that could mean something more than the typical “playing for next year” squad.
Final score prediction
I don’t have a good feel for how this one plays out, in part because it’s hard to know how long the Lions play their starters. If the Lions really want to win this game, they will. Nothing in Dan Campbell’s competitive mentality suggests otherwise, but sometimes discretion is the better part of valor. Lions 24, Vikings 22.