It’s Christmas Eve! The stockings are not yet hung by the chimney because there is Detroit Lions football today.
The return to the traditional 1 p.m. kickoff on a Sunday afternoon brings some normalcy back to the schedule. But as I sip the morning pot of coffee, I wonder if normalcy is so desirable? After all, normalcy for the Lions franchise means not winning the division, not capitalizing on the edge of glory. Today’s game can mean so much more than that.
Why I think the Lions will win
- The depth of playmakers for Jared Goff and his willingness to use any of them on any given passing play. The Vikings like to create chaos with their exotic coverages and pass rush packages, but the perfect counter to that is a patient QB who isn’t locked into any one option. That’s Goff with Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds and — especially in this matchup — Jaymhr Gibbs.
- I like the matchup of Aidan Hutchinson against a hobbled Brian O’Neill, who is one of the NFL’s better right tackles. Hutchinson’s relentless energy and quick spin moves are trouble for healthy tackles, and O’Neill is questionable with an ankle injury. Vikings QB Nick Mullens under pressure is trouble for Minnesota, which also doesn’t run the ball well (23rd in yards per game, 21st in yards per carry).
- The Lions restored the roar last weekend, and I think they can apply the lessons from the rout over Denver successfully in Minnesota. That means aggressive, proactive defense and a sharp, speed-based offensive attack that counters pressure. Having a healthy starting offensive line certainly helps in this regard.
What worries me about the Vikings
- Brian Flores’ defense has given Goff fits over the years. Flores blitzes the most but also drops more players into coverage more often than any other defense. Goff has struggled against defenses that conceal their intentions well, and that’s the default setting for the Vikings. Rookie LB Ivan Pace can be a major problem for Detroit today.
- They’re playing for their playoff lives, and they know it. Minnesota is a good enough team to parlay that anxious energy and sense of desperation into dangerous football.
- With Justin Jefferson back, the Vikings have two legit downfield receiving threats. Rookie Jordan Addison is a good one, too. And old friend T.J. Hockenson is gunning for 100 catches (he’s at 91) and 1,000 yards (902) and you know he’ll be motivated against Detroit. The Lions have major issues covering the secondary and tertiary receivers down the field, and that’s exactly how Minnesota is built. Mullens isn’t shy about taking shots, either.
Final score prediction
Earlier in the week, I was pretty confident in the Lions to pull this divisional road win off. But the simple reality of the concept of Detroit winning the division on the road against a team that, in theory, matches up well with them is weighing heavily. The Lions can do it, no question. They probably should do it. But will they do it? I need to see it first. Vikings 26, Lions 24.