It’s a wonderful football Sunday here in Michigan. The morning coffee cuts through the chilly air. It’s hoodie and hat weather, and I’m repping the Lions with each.
The Detroit Lions welcome the Titans from Tennessee to this beautiful fall day. Of course, playing in the dome in Ford Field sort of negates the autumnal charm of the Great Lakes. Then again, Dan Campbell’s 5-1 Lions aren’t looking to make the Titans trip enjoyable–nor should they.
Why I think the Lions will win
Tennessee enters the game with a 1-5 record, thanks in large part to a heretofore dreadful offense that is plagued by turnovers and awful quarterback play from Will Levis and (last week) Mason Rudolph. They’re dead last in passing yards per game despite having an impressive (on paper) receiving corps in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Hopkins (now gone) and TE Chig Okonkwo, plus versatile RB Tony Pollard.
Quarterback play has been bad, but so has pass protection. Tennessee ranks 26th in sack percentage allowed and 27th in pass-blocking grades from PFF, with first-round rookie LT JC Latham really struggling early on. The new offense under rookie head coach Brian Callahan hasn’t clicked yet.
All that is to say — this is not an offense that can outscore Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions offense. Even without Jameson Williams, the Lions have more than enough firepower to win a shootout against Tennessee. And the Titans seem quite averse to trying to even try to get into a shootout with their offense.
Even with the banged-up Lions pass rush, this is not the kind of offense or team mindset that can effectively exploit the Detroit vulnerability. The Lions run defense remains very good, though they do remain somewhat susceptible to runners like Pollard who can cut back at full speed and read blocks well.
Back to that Lions offense. With Goff playing as well as any quarterback in the league right now, this should be a game where the Lions can score 30-plus points. Tennessee’s defense isn’t bad at all, but they also haven’t seen a precise, creative, balanced unit like the Lions yet. Goff’s unfailing willingness to take what the defense gives him and the diverse barrage of weapons at his disposal are capable of quickly frustrating the Titans defense.
What worries me about the Titans
Tennessee continues to sport an impressive defensive line, even with former coach Terrell Williams now in Detroit. Jeffery Simmons is as good as it gets on the interior. Massive rookie T’Vondre Sweat effectively and actively takes up a lot of space. Sweat is questionable for the game, but if he plays, the inside-out runs and delayed handoffs will not work well for Detroit’s offense. Their linebackers play well behind the duo, too–even without Ernest Jones. Any hesitation from the RBs will not end well for Gibbs or Montgomery.
Despite trading Hopkins, the Titans receivers still do have some real talent. Ridley is playing better than his stats would indicate, and Tyler Boyd is a tough matchup over the middle. Okonkwo and Pollard are both excellent receivers who can make the first tackler miss, so the Lions LBs and safeties will need to stay disciplined and alert.
I do have some concerns about the pass rush, or lack thereof. Al-Quadin Muhammad is Detroit’s top EDGE in this game, but he comes from the practice squad and hasn’t played in a game since 2022. If coordinator Aaron Glenn tries too hard to scheme up the rush, it does take away from the coverage but especially the tackling and containment after the catch, and that’s where these Titans receivers can win.
Then there’s the more abstract. It’s hard for a team to get such consistently bad play from players who do seem to have some real ability. That starts with Will Levis, who is effective in a Baker Mayfield kind of way until he makes truly ponderous decisions and terrible throws at the least opportune times. Their cornerbacks are solid but don’t always play to their potential. Perhaps missing L’Jarius Sneed will provide an opportunity for a heretofore unheralded defensive back to step up and make a name. Tennessee is overdue for something like that to happen.
And, of course, the history factor. The Lions have never beaten the Titans. Most of the games have been more about Detroit finding ways to lose than the Titans being that much better (2008 excepted). History must be respected before repeating it can be avoided.
Final score prediction
This is the “easiest” game left on the Lions schedule. Worry about a trap game if you will, but I believe that Dan Campbell and his staff will avoid falling victim to overconfidence. It might not result in the lopsided outcome that my Titans Wire colleagues all predicted, but the Lions should win comfortably.
Lions 26, Titans 13