This Sunday’s morning coffee is laced with a little chicory in honor of the Lions playing the Saints in New Orleans. It’s a little bitter, kind of like the way the Lions mad fans feel on Thanksgiving with a weak effort in a deflating loss to the Green Bay Packers.
The Week 13 matchup presents Detroit with a good chance to sweeten the smiles of Lions fans everywhere. The 5-6 Saints are home underdogs to the visiting Lions, and rightfully so. It’s time for the Lions to prove they are a viable NFC contender while damaging the postseason potential of a team that’s tied for first in the NFC South.
Why I think the Lions will win
- I am a believer in the resiliency of the Lions, and more specifically, the ability of Dan Campbell to get his Detroit team to refocus. An extra couple of days to rest, but also to reflect with a clearer head about what’s not working lately, figures to do wonders for the Lions.
- New Orleans is really bad in the red zone. The Saints convert just 42 percent of their red zone offensive possessions into touchdowns. That’s the fourth-worst in the NFL. However, over their last four games, the Saints are dead last at 25 percent. It’s what the doctor ordered for the Lions defense, which ranks 30th at 68 percent and that rate was over 75 percent in November. Defensively, the Saints are 19th in stopping red zone possessions from becoming touchdowns. The Lions offense is 14th (55.2 percent) but was 2nd in the month of November (77 percent).
- The Saints pass defense statistics look pretty impressive, ranking in the top 10 in a lot of coverage and efficiency metrics. But have a look at the quarterbacks they’ve faced: Bryce Young, Mac Jones (who got benched in the game), Ryan Tannehill, Jordan Love (in Week 3), Baker Mayfield (who lit them up for 3 TDs and the league’s top QB Rating in Week 4), Gardner Minshew, Tyson Bagent, Josh Dobbs (1st start in Minnesota), Desmond Ridder. The best QB they’ve faced, Trevor Lawrence, tore them apart. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta should find a lot of success.
- Detroit is wearing the all-white uniforms, a combination in which they’re typically at their best. Now throw the blue helmets on top and we’ve got uniform perfection. I’ll settle for a clean win.
What worries me about the Saints
- Derek Carr is historically a volatile QB. He’ll struggle for three weeks in a row against bad defenses, then light up a top-five defense without rhyme or reason. That’s been his career path, one that finally frustrated the Raiders enough to give up on Carr. He’s due for that good day after throwing for just five TDs in his last seven games.
- I believe that the underwhelming performance of the special teams has helped lead Dan Campbell to become unnecessarily aggressive on 4th down calls, and it’s cost his team. Coordinator Dave Fipp indirectly acknowledged that in his weekly press conference. Other than kicker Blake Grupe being inconsistent, the Saints special teams have been very, very good (though return specialist Rashid Shaheed is injured). It’s a stress point where Detroit must perform better in both special teams execution and fourth-down choices. No fake punts this week, please…
- The lack of pass rush isn’t likely to be solved by Bruce Irvin’s elevation. And without Alex Anzalone in the lineup, Detroit’s linebacking corps is really lacking in coverage. Fold this into the above worry about Carr and the coffee needs something stronger than chicory…
Final score prediction
I see a get-right game for the offensive line after an abysmal performance last week. I see a big game for Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. I see the Lions defense creating more takeaways than the Saints get from Detroit.
Lions 33, Saints 19