For the second week in a row, we are treated to Detroit Lions football on a Thursday instead of the traditional Sunday kickoff. As was the case in Week 13’s Thanksgiving matinee against the Chicago Bears, this Thursday pits the LIons in a home game against a division rival.
This time, it’s Thursday night football against the Green Bay Packers. Yeah, those guys from the other side of Lake Michigan. The place where the Lions roared to a 24-14 victory five weeks ago that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates.
As I sip the morning coffee amidst a winter storm warning that has closed schools and businesses everywhere around me, the chill of the specter of tonight’s game is unavoidable. This is a big one for both teams.
Why I think the Lions will win
The running game with Sonic and Knuckles, better known as Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, continues to play exceedingly well. The Lions offense can control the game script because they can run so effectively in any situation. 1st-and-10, Montgomery gets eight. 3rd-and-3, Gibbs blasts off for 17.
The ability to consistently generate big plays from the run game is huge for Detroit. It’s also huge in how it impacts the opposing defense. The Packers linebackers and safeties have to remain alert for the potential that Gibbs will be racing to the outside on a simple zone run, or Montgomery will run through the initial tackle and be charging at them at full speed, often with Penei Sewell and Kevin Zeitler still leading the way well past the line of scrimmage. That’s in addition to their potential coverage responsibilities against Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and even Tim Patrick, who has become more involved in the passing offense since the first meeting.
Detroit might have to focus on outscoring the Packers in this one, thanks to all the defensive attrition. Jared Goff and his merry band of weaponry can do it, and do it unapologetically. That’s a very real edge for the Lions; they’ve done it before and can do it again. The Lions know it, but the Packers do too, and that puts considerable pressure on a young, mistake-prone Green Bay team to try and match. That’s how Detroit so comfortably handled the Week 9 game in Green Bay.
Special teams certainly deserves a nod for the Lions. Punter Jack Fox is having an incredible season. In a golden age of NFL punting, Fox remains the gold standard for consistency in flipping the field. The coverage units have remained strong despite major injury-induced personnel changes, too. Coordinator Dave Fipp has his units playing as well as anyone.
Defensively, there is a “revenge game” angle for a couple of key Lions–perhaps the two most key Detroit defenders. Za’Darius Smith has taken over as the team’s top pass rusher since joining the team. Before he joined the Lions, Smith openly talked about how badly he wanted to come to Detroit specifically so he could play against the Packers, his old team. Smith’s tenure with Green Bay did not end well, and he’s ready to take out some frustration.
Safety Brian Branch had to watch most of the Week 9 win from the locker room after being ejected for a questionable hit. Branch’s ability to make big plays and be a versatile wild card at the back end is integral to everything coordinator Aaron Glenn wants to do defensively, and now Branch has an edge of redemption to him. That should play very well for Detroit.
What worries me about the Packers
Green Bay is playing some very strong football over the past three weeks, winning all three games since losing to Detroit. Their Week 10 bye revived and refocused their offense, notably in ball security. Jordan Love has been playing smarter, cleaner ball; Green Bay has just one giveaway in those three games.
Some of that stems from Josh Jacobs running the ball extremely well. He’s the type of RB that has given the Lions defense some trouble this year, and now the Detroit defense must try to slow him down without premium run defender DJ Reader and three of its top four LBs behind him. Reader’s loss is a big one, because the nose tackle is exceptional at keeping blockers away from Jack Campbell and all the replacements surrounding him at linebacker. Now it’s up to Brodric Martin, who has played exactly two snaps all year. All of the line depth and all of the linebacking depth is completely new from the first meeting.
I give Glenn a ton of credit for keeping the Lions defense formidable throughout all the injuries. But there’s only so much that all those bandages can stretch before they snap, and I worry that happens against a multitalented Packers offense that has been playing largely mistake-free ball lately. Love has found a bit of a rhythm as the Packers lean on Jacobs and a better-than-advertised run blocking OL, and he’s got dangerous weapons in Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Those guys might not be stars, and all have some inconsistency to their games, but they’re playing very well collectively of late.
The Lions patchwork defense has benefitted from playing erratic QBs in Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams, each of which plays behind an offensive line that isn’t nearly as good as what it will see against Green Bay. Based on the last few weeks, it’s unfair to lump Love in with those quarterbacks, too.
That’s got the potential for Green Bay to play with a lead, and that’s a bit of an issue for the Lions offense. Not having left tackle Taylor Decker could be very bad for Detroit. Decker wasn’t terribly missed against Chicago and their straightforward pass rush attack. Green Bay does a lot more blitzing and wide-angle rushing than the Bears, and that’s not a strong suit for Decker’s replacement, Dan Skipper. As much as we all love Skipper, he’s also not nearly the run-blocking presence that Decker is. With left guard Graham Glasgow also not playing well of late, I worry that a more one-handed offense will struggle against a swift, aggressive Packers defense.
Final score prediction
The Lions are rightly favored to win, but I can’t escape the feeling that the myriad injuries finally catch up to the team tonight. Not having Decker and Reader is huge; I would pick the Lions if either were playing in Week 14. But they’re not, and Green Bay is playing focused enough that I don’t think the Packers give back that advantage.
Packers 29, Lions 21