The phrase “football weather” conjures up visions of crisp autumn afternoons, with a chill in the air and maybe a little rain, perhaps a good end of the field from the wind. For the first time this season, the Detroit Lions will experience football weather.
The seasonable conditions in Green Bay make forecasting the late-afternoon game between the Lions and Packers more difficult. Between the unpredictability of Mother Nature and the end of daylight savings time, it’s something of a discombobulated Sunday morning in figuring out who will win this game.
The 6-1 Lions can win–and win big. The 6-2 Packers can also win–and win emphatically. Detroit is rightly favored, but how will it play out?
Why I think the Lions will win
The high-powered Lions offense can outscore anyone, anywhere. And I think the catalyst behind why Ben Johnson’s offense is so dominant has shifted as the 2024 season has progressed. It used to be the offensive line, but now the primary impetus is the play of Jared Goff at quarterback.
Goff is playing as well as any player in the league, regardless of position. The fact he’s doing it at the most important position is a huge reason why the Lions are approaching offensive juggernaut status. The precision. The field vision. The preternatural calmness in the face of defensive chaos. Goff is very deserving of the NFL MVP talk.
That offensive line is still great, too. The left side has been a little shaky lately, but overall, Hank Fraley’s veteran line is as good as it gets. In Green Bay, they’ll need to prove it in the run game. Because that’s the clearest path to victory for Detroit this afternoon.
Run the bleeping ball. Ram it down Green Bay’s throat with the lethal combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Have Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow and friends push the Packers line around, using the unsure footing in the soggy tundra to their advantage. I’m confident Ben Johnson will deploy that as a primary game plan.
It’s helped by the Packers scheme, which doesn’t blitz often. On the surface, that would seem more pertinent to the pass protection, but the run game can benefit from knowing that the Packers rely heavily on their linebackers and safeties to make reactive plays, not proactively attacking. That plays directly into the hands of the Lions offense — especially in the inclement footing and weather.
That also plays into the play-action that Goff and his receivers do so well. Green Bay’s linebackers are pretty solid, and quite fast to close. But if they get sucked up by the run fake, Sam LaPorta can get that much more open in the seam and on out routes, and Amon-Ra St. Brown gets a little more room to operate over the middle and quickly switch from receiver to runner. Nobody does it better.
The iffy status of top Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander should help offset Detroit not having Jameson Williams, who is serving the second of his two-game suspension.
This is also the rare game where the Lions have at least a push at kicker. No disrespect to Jake Bates, but it’s been a process of the first-year Lions kicker earning trust. Bates is doing just that with a heretofore perfect start on field goals. He hasn’t kicked outside before, and that does bring some concern back. However, the Packers are on their second kicker in Brandon McManus. He’s also been perfect in his two games with Green Bay, so maybe the Lions don’t have an advantage, but in Bates we (mostly) trust. Nailing the game-winner in Minnesota with the game plan specifically playing to let Bates kick it did wonders for the young kicker, and also this fan’s faith in him.
What worries me about the Packers
If there is any team that can try to successfully outscore the Lions, it’s Green Bay. Their balanced, well-coordinated offense actually averages more yards per game (388) than Detroit’s, and the Packers are top 10 in both rushing and passing.
Jordan Love has thrown the ball very well, and he’s got a lot of weapons at his disposal. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft all have at least 20 targets, meaning Love isn’t shy about spreading the ball around to his best option–and all those guys are good options. Some are more consistent than others, but the Lions secondary will be challenged by the Packers’ diverse passing offense.
That makes getting to Love with the pass rush and forcing him into the mistakes he’s shown he will make an imperative for Aaron Glenn’s defense. They’ll need to do that with Levi Onwuzurike and Al-Quadin Muhammad as the EDGEs thanks to a plethora of injuries. Both are best in small doses, but the extreme lack of depth means they’ll be relied upon to play heavy minutes in unfamiliar field conditions.
They also have to worry about Josh Jacobs, a running back whose style is similar to what Detroit saw last week in Tony Pollard–who had an impressively productive day against the Lions’ stingy run defense. The Packers use Reed as a running weapon nicely, and Love can get outside the pocket and run a little (though his gimpy groin might hinder that).
The Packers defense gives up a lot of yards, but they’re very good at creating takeaways and capitalizing on mistakes. Green Bay leads the league in creating turnovers; 19 takeaways in eight games is no fluke. One of the reasons the Packers have a relatively low team tackling grade from PFF is that they attack the ball more than they try to end the play. Gibbs and especially Goff (4 fumbles in two games) need to be vigilant in protecting the ball from prying Packers punches.
Green Bay upgraded at defensive coordinator in dumping one-time Lions flop Joe Barry and replacing him with the more creative, more teaching-oriented Jeff Hafley. Ben Johnson hasn’t seen Hafley’s defense before, and that might lead to some feeling-out process and a slow start for Detroit’s offense. I don’t think the Lions can afford many empty possessions in this one.
Final score prediction
This one’s tough. I think the first team to 20 points wins, and these are two of the best first-quarter offenses in the league. I trust Jared Goff to make fewer mistakes than Jordan Love, especially if the Packers are pressing to score from behind. It’s up to the Lions dilapidated defense to force that scenario, and that’s a tough ask in Green Bay.
Lions 36, Packers 34