It’s been a few Sundays since the Lions played, what with the bye week and a Monday night game. It’s nice to have the Sunday morning coffee to sip in the chilly Michigan autumn and conjure up some thoughts on Detroit’s game in Dallas later this afternoon.
It should be a good game. Lions fans get their first taste of Tom Brady calling a game, and it’s the featured matchup across the country in the late window. What a great opportunity for Dan Campbell’s Lions to show their mettle coming out of the bye and prove they belong among the NFL’s elite at this juncture of the 2024 season.
Why I think the Lions will win
This one is simple: the run game. The Lions are a top-10 run offense, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Only three teams run the ball more frequently than the Lions do (32.9 attempts per game) with the talented combo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s a consistent attack built around one of the NFL’s best offensive lines–one that returns All-Pro center Frank Ragnow in the middle after missing Detroit’s last game.
That matches up against a Dallas run defense that has not been good. In fact, the Cowboys have the lowest PFF team grade in run defense, and they also rank near the bottom in tackling grade, too. Their linebackers are very speed-based, and they play behind a dilapidated line that doesn’t make many plays. This sets up as a game where both Montgomery and Gibbs can top 75 rushing yards and each score a touchdown.
Then there’s the flip side. Detroit’s defense against running backs remains the NFL’s best; the Lions still give up a lot of yards to opposing QBs that run, but no team allows a lower yards per carry to RBs on first downs (2.9) than the Lions run defense. They face a Dallas run offense that barely tries. The Cowboys run the ball less than all but one team, and one reason might be their anemic 3.5 YPC, also 31st in the league.
Without their top three pass rushers, notably Micah Parsons, the Dallas pass rush isn’t nearly as foreboding. They still have some talent, but this is a game where Jared Goff should have some opportunities down the field on play action. Old friend Amani Oruwariye figures to match up against Jameson Williams, and it could remind Lions fans why the team gave up on Oruwariye and have a much better secondary for it, too.
Aidan Hutchinson has a great matchup today, too. The Cowboys offensive line has been rebuilt, and it’s a lot better on the interior than at tackle. Hutchinson leads the NFL in sacks even though he’s played one fewer game than almost everyone, and his pressure rate and pass rush win rate are off the charts. Tackles Tyler Guyton and Terrence Steele are eminently beatable. As a bonus, the Dallas tight ends are among the worst in pass protection, too. If the Lions get anything at all from the other side opposite Hutchinson, it’s going to be a long day for Dak Prescott.
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What worries me about the Cowboys
We’ll start where we just left off: Dak Prescott. He’s a very good quarterback, one who has played very well against Detroit. Prescott is 5-0 against Detroit, completing over 67 percent of his passes and throwing 11 TDs against just one INT. His career QB Rating against Detroit (118.6) is higher than against any other team.
Even though Dallas can’t run the ball, it’s still a dangerous offense around Prescott, too. The Cowboys seem aware they can’t run and often eschew it, which puts a lot of pressure on the opposing secondary. CeeDee Lamb is an elite receiver who can win all over the field, and he and Prescott are in lockstep. Tight end Jake Ferguson is a good receiver, too. Their backs can catch and turn it up quickly, as well.
I’d be negligent if I didn’t bring up the officiating. Too many Lions-Cowboys games have been impacted by controversial (read: bad) officiating, including last year’s game, where referee Brad Allen decided Dallas should win.
In a close game, kicking matters. It’s hard to trust Lions greenhorn Jake Bates at this point; the track record just isn’t there. His Dallas counterpart, Brandon Aubrey, has already made a 65-yard FG this year and is 7-of-8 from beyond 50 yards this season. He’s quickly become the NFL’s best distance kicker, and that can be the difference in the game.
Final score prediction
It’s hard to forecast a win in Dallas, even with the Lions favored. Once bitten, twice shy is an apropos theme song. Still, Detroit has the better offense and the better defense as the two teams meet today. Barring some unexpected bye-week rust or OC Ben Johnson outsmarting himself, the Lions should be able to outscore the Cowboys in Dallas and run away with an impressive road win over a likely playoff foe.
Lions 30, Cowboys 24