MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 304 main event between welterweight champion [autotag]Leon Edwards[/autotag] and [autotag]Belal Muhammad[/autotag], who meet in a rematch of a March 2021 fight that ended in a no contest because of a nasty eye poke by Edwards.
Leon Edwards UFC 304 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 22-3 MMA, 14-2 UFC
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision win over Colby Covington(Dec. 16, 2023)
- Camp: Team Renegade (Birmingham, Eng.)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC welterweight champion
+ BAMMA welterweight title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good lateral footwork
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Hard head and body kicks
+ Superb clinch game
^ Grip awareness, elbows off the break, etc.
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Solid defensive and offensive fundamentals
+/- 1-0 in career rematches
Belal Muhammad UFC 304 preview
- Record: 23-3 MMA, 14-3 UFC
- Height: 5’11” Age: 36 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision win over Gilbert Burns (May 6, 2023)
- Camp: Chicago Fight Team (Chicago, Il.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Titan FC welterweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Wrestling base
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 1 first-round finish
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Good combination striker
^ Shifts stances/variates to the body
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Serviceable takedown threats
^ In the open or against the fence
+ Good transitional grappler
+/-1-0 in career rematches
+/- 5-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad point of interest: Striking the second time around
Between their first fight lasting just over a round to the fact that it took place over three years ago on short notice, it’s hard to make concrete statements based on that meeting alone.
Although Edwards was winning early, you can’t discount the fact Muhammad has a winning record against southpaws and traditionally gets stronger as fights wear on.
Belal Muhammad, who rematches Leon Edwards at #UFC304, is 5-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws (W: Curtis, Recountre, Means, Maia, Sato; L: Jouban, Neal; NC: Edwards)
Belal, unlike a lot of orthodox fighters, doesn’t abandon his jab as he smartly works the body and looks to counter pic.twitter.com/m3X8hezu8s
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 25, 2024
Despite being an orthodox-stance striker who isn’t shy about throwing power from the rear, Muhammad has done a deceptively good job of developing his lead hand in recent years.
Half-stepping his way into space off of a prodding jab, Muhammad makes hay off of multiple looks that range from building right crosses to the body to levering hooks off of his straight shots. The 12-year pro also has been much sneakier about shifting his stance mid-combination, as Muhammad shows a slick ability to draw opposition into right hooks off a back-stepping southpaw shift (a la a prime “Jacare” Souza).
Muhammad is also content with continually punishing legs from a distance when he needs to, but is not beyond taking damage to his own lower extremities due to his propensity to stay heavy on his lead leg. Against a crafty counter fighter who is not shy about attacking the lower extremities, Muhammad could get more than he bargains for should he not disguise his entries properly from range.
Enter Edwards.
A slick, diverse striker who can counter or come forward with effect, Edwards’ pairing of speed and accuracy helps him cover a lot of ground in regards to gaining respect.
Leon Edwards counter striking pic.twitter.com/6ZBIiXgAh7
— Miguel Class (@MigClass) August 19, 2022
Working behind a deceptive jab that he often uses to check his opponents, Edwards keeps powerful left crosses and kicks at the ready, occasionally sprinkling in sneaky teeps and explosive knees to intercept oncoming level changes. The Englishman also doesn’t mind throwing a shot away in order to land another, as Edwards seems perfectly fine with making adjustments on the fly.
Whenever his opponents offer up straight shots down the center, Edwards has a knack for countering over the tops of their shoulders. And when they decide to hook hard or launch power from the rear, Edwards is quick to suffocate their efforts by initiating the clinch and applying his patent close-quarter-combat tactics.
When feeling in stride, Edwards will try and capitalize on previous bodywork by going up high with his patent head kick – usually setting it up off of your classic southpaw double-attack dynamic.
Even though I see Edwards’ left elbow having some play in this fight, the distance he likes to launch it at will likely invite a very sticky customer.
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering the previous success that other fighters have had against Edwards, no one should be shocked if Muhammad looks to pressure the champion into grappling exchanges early and often.
Coming from a wrestling base where he was coached by PFL standout Louis Taylor, Muhammad is no stranger when it comes to stringing takedowns into his offensive repertoire. Whether he is chaining off of singles in the open or changing his level for doubles against the fence, Muhammad offers solid takedown threats that his opposition needs to respect.
Muhammad is also good at chaining his way into clinching scenarios, which could make things interesting given each fighter’s strengths.
Not only is Muhammad a decent shot wrestler, but the Palestinian-American works well from the body lock, showing a knack for shucking by his opponents and encouraging back exposure through his mat returns. Thankfully for Edwards, the Englishman appears to be more comfortable in the clinch than he is anywhere else in the octagon.
Far from a pushover in the wrestling department, Edwards has made some sizable upgrades to his game throughout his UFC tenure.
Initially identified as a striker when first stepping onto the UFC scene, Edwards put a sizable emphasis on his wrestling after losing a close split decision in his promotional debut. Since then, we have seen Edwards surprise better on-paper grapplers with suffocating clinches and well-timed trip takedowns that allow the Englishman to counter offensive efforts and win rounds in the process.
Edwards also likes looking for the back, but – as seen in the tweet above – is just as happy playing the role of a positional rider and grinding things out with crafty controls and other forms of attritional warfare. That said, Edwards is not beyond making suspect decisions from time to time and will need to be careful about giving away opportunities that Muhammad can make hay with.
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad odds
The oddsmakers and public are favoring the sitting champion, with FanDuel listing Edwards -250 and Muhammad +190 at the time of this writing.
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad prediction, pick
Despite England traditionally backing its fighters at the betting window, money appears to be slowly trickling in on the challenger.
Given the fact that Muhammad has always been a dog who will fight for your money, I can’t say that I blame anyone for taking a shot on the Palestinian-American in this spot.
Not only does Muhammad have the on-paper activity and style to pose some problems for Edwards, but the 36-year-old from Chicago also possesses remarkable recoverability to boot. Nevertheless, I’m still having trouble straying from the reads I had ahead of their first affair.
Even though Muhammad – who is an excellent game planner – will have a full camp to prepare this time around, he looks to be inherently hardwired to dip and slip hard to a southpaw’s power side due to his wrestling-boxing archetype.
That said, aside from the fact that he arguably lost to Means, left-sided strikes – regardless of stance – remain to land at a disproportionate rate on Muhammad and are the common thread in his knockdowns and losses.
Luque also has brief success from SP before knocking him out: pic.twitter.com/z3wzmKGcWo
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 25, 2024
Add in the fact that left-sided strikes remain the common culprit for Muhammad regardless of stance, and I suspect that the challenger will be offering up Edwards the type of building materials he traditionally makes hay with.
Part of me will be cheering for Muhammad and the cause he so bravely stands for, but the unbias analyst in me will be picking Edwards to produce a knockout by Round 4.
Prediction: Edwards inside the distance
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad start time, where to watch
As the main event, Edwards and Muhammad are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 304.