Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

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The Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) lock up with the Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) on Black Friday. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 3 p.m. EST (Prime Video). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Raiders vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Raiders enter Arrowhead on a 7-game losing streak, recently falling to the Denver Broncos 29-19 last Sunday. They failed to cover as 5-point home underdogs as the Over (41.5) hit. QB Gardner Minshew threw for 230 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT before his season ended with a clavicle injury. QB Aidan O’Connell (thumb) comes off IR to start this week.

The Chiefs continue to win but continue to allow the other side to cover. They prevailed 30-27 on a walk-off field goal as 11-point favorites at the Carolina Panthers in Week 12. QB Patrick Mahomes had one of his best games of the season with 269 passing yards, 3 TDs and 60 rushing yards, which was a season high. TE Noah Gray caught 2 of those TDs among his 4 grabs for 66 yards. They’ll get RB Isiah Pacheco (leg) and DE Charles Omenihu (knee) back for this one.

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Raiders at Chiefs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:20 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Raiders +525 (bet $100 to win $525) | Chiefs -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Raiders +13 (-115) | Chiefs -13 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 42.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Raiders at Chiefs key injuries

Raiders

CB Jakorian Bennett (shoulder) out/injured reserve (IR)
CB Nate Hobbs (ankle) out
RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) questionable
QB Gardner Minshew (collarbone) out/IR
RB Zamir White (quadricep) out

Chiefs

PK Spencer Shrader (hamstring) out

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Raiders at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Chiefs 20, Raiders 17

Moneyline

The Chiefs have won 6 of the last 7 games vs. the Raiders, including the first meeting this season, a 27-20 victory at home in Week 8. However, they failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites with the Over (43) cashing. Last December, Las Vegas pulled off a 20-14 upset as an 11-point underdog in Kansas City on Christmas Day — Under (40.5) hit in this one.

While the Chiefs might be 10-1, they have flirted with disaster against the spread as they’ve failed to cover in 5 straight games — despite winning 4 of them.

There is no moneyline wager here. Instead, I’m keying on Raiders TE BROCK BOWERS OVER 57.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115). In the 2 games O’Connell threw 20 passes, Bowers was targeted 12 and 10 times and had 97 and 71 receiving yards.

Against the spread

I love LAS VEGAS +13 (-115). The Chiefs have failed to put some bad teams away and as mentioned, have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. Raiders DE Maxx Crosby drives Mahomes crazy in the pocket. It’s expected to be cold, and this should be a game dominated by running backs. This has a good chance to hit. I personally took Raiders +13.5 earlier in the week.

Over/Under

This is a close call. It’s expected to be 36 degrees at kickoff. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. We’ve only had 1 meeting in KC in winter conditions since 2021, and that finished 20-14. That’s what I am feeling here, despite KC being 4-1 O/U in the last 5 and Vegas 4-0 O/U in their last 4.

TAKE UNDER 42.5 (-110).

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