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The Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty meet Sunday for Game 1 of the best-of-5 WNBA semifinals at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Tip-off is scheduled 3 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s WNBA odds around the Aces vs. Liberty odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Regular-season series: Liberty won 3-0
Last season, the Aces and Liberty met in the WNBA Finals. Now, they must go through each other for the chance to play for another title. Las Vegas won its 2nd consecutive WNBA championship by ousting New York in 4 games last season.
The defending champs swept the Seattle Storm in the 1st round, splitting against the spread (ATS), while the Under was 1-0-1. Las Vegas averaged 80.5 points per game (PPG), while allowing 71.5 PPG.
The Aces have won 7 in a row since Sept. 11 in the regular season, and 6 of those victories came against playoff teams. The non-cover for the Aces in Game 2 against Seattle was rare, too, as Las Vegas is 10-1-1 ATS in the past 12 outings.
The Liberty swept the regular-season series with the Aces, including a 79-67 win Aug. 17 at Mandalay Bay to cover as 3.5-point underdogs, and a 90-82 victory as a 2.5-point underdog on June 15. In the only home game for New York, it eased by Las Vegas 75-71, but the Aces covered as a 9.5-point underdog. The Under cashed in all 3 meetings.
The Liberty swept the Atlanta Dream in the 1st round, but went 1-1 ATS and 1-1 Over-Under in those games. While the regular-season finale was meaningless with the No. 1 seed locked in, New York is still just 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in the past 5 games since Sept. 15. The Under is 11-5 in the past 16 outings.
Aces at Liberty odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:14 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Aces +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Liberty -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Aces +4.5 (-120) | Liberty -4.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 163.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Aces at Liberty picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 82, Aces 79
Moneyline
The Liberty (-175) are just a little expensive on the moneyline in this series opener. While New York dominated the season series against the Aces (+145), Las Vegas is playing its best basketball of the season lately.
New York, on the other hand, took its foot off the gas a little bit down the stretch. It’s difficult to flip that switch back on, although I fully expect the Liberty to get it done at home. I think this game could very well come down to the final possession and free throws.
AVOID.
Against the spread
The ACES +4.5 (-120) know how to get it done at this time of the season.
How many times have you seen a team dominate the regular season, only to suffer a loss in the playoffs. It’s a difficult animal in the postseason, and no one know how to prepare for a championship run better than A’ja Wilson and the Aces.
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Over/Under
UNDER 163.5 (-110) is the lean in this game.
First off, the Under cashed in all 3 meetings in the regular season. In addition, the Under is 11-5 in the past 16 games for the Liberty since Aug. 17, a run which started with a trip to Las Vegas.
For the Aces, the Under is 1-0-1 in the postseasn, while going 16-5-1 in the past 22 games since July 10.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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