Kyle Shanahan is going to get the blame. Had he not been a part of the Falcons’ collapse in Super Bowl 51, that may not have been the case, but when you blow a 28-3 on the sport’s biggest stage, you lose the benefit of the doubt. After the 49ers blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 54, the takes were already being crafted: This so-called offensive mastermind had blown yet another Super Bowl.
Shanahan certainly deserves criticism for his conservative decision-making and poor clock management, which cost his team points. But it’s hard to put all the blame for the 49ers 20-point output all on the coach, as Shanahan pitched a near-perfect game from a play-calling standpoint. If not for Jimmy Garoppolo’s poor performance, we’d be celebrating Shanahan’s genius right now. Not questioning it.
As expected, the 49ers’ run game was dazzling with a wide receiver, rookie Deebo Samuel, surprisingly at the heart of the ground attack. Shanahan consistently created space for his speedy skill players with brilliant designs that had the Chiefs front seven running in circles. San Francisco averaged 0.23 Expected Points Added, per run. To put that in perspective, the Ravens led the NFL in rushing EPA at 0.12 per run.
The passing game should have been just as productive. Per Next Gen Stats, Garoppolo’s expected completion percentage was 69.8% for the game. He completed 64.5% of his passes, giving him a Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) of -5.3%. Only one quarterback produced a worse CPOE over the course of the regular season: Lions backup David Blough.
Through three quarters, Garoppolo’s numbers were looking pretty good. “Super Bowl MVP” good, even. Going into the fourth quarter, Garoppolo was completing 85% of his passes and averaging over nine yards-per-attempt, but that was mostly the result of Shanahan’s schemes providing him with easy throws that allowed 49ers pass catchers to rack up yards after the catch. Garoppolo’s average completion traveled only 4.7 yards downfield on average, per Next Gen Stats. And nearly all of his production came on play-action passes…
Jimmy Garoppolo has used play action on 60% of dropbacks through the 3rd quarter, which would be the highest rate by a QB in a game this season with at least 10 pass attempts.
➤ Garoppolo (Play Action): 11/12, 111 yards, TD#SBLIV | #GoNiners
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 3, 2020
Through three quarters, Shanahan’s system had effectively hidden Garoppolo. And then the fourth quarter happened. In the final frame, the 28-year-old completed three of his eleven attempts for 36 yards and an interception. The numbers are bad, but the plays he left on the field will haunt 49ers fans for years.
With the 49ers leading 20-17 with just over five minutes remaining in the game, Garoppolo had a chance to pretty much put the game away on third-and-5. Shanahan dialed up his “Arches concept from a bunch formation,” a perfect call against the Chiefs man coverage.
The receiver at the point of the bunch runs an in-breaking route that clears out space for George Kittle on the short post route. The play worked as planned; but, for whatever reason, Garoppolo decided not to throw to Kittle, who had beaten his man inside and would have easily picked up the first down.
Jimmy G had Kittle open man pic.twitter.com/oK5jcpwmHl
— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) February 3, 2020
That third down incompletion under pressure – look at Kittle pic.twitter.com/ml46L0k0bq
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) February 3, 2020
The 49ers were forced to punt and seven plays later, Patrick Mahomes found Damien Williams for a go-ahead touchdown with 2:44 left on the clock. More than enough time for Shanahan and Garoppolo to put together a Super Bowl-winning drive.
On the sixth play of that drive, Shanahan dialed up what should have been a championship-winning play. Once again, the play-call was perfect. The 49ers went with a passing concept commonly referred to as “Mills,” which has the slot receiver running a deep in-breaking route and the outside receiver running a post over the top.
Both Emmanuel Sanders and Kendrick Bourne got open on the play and Garoppolo had enough time to make the throw from a relatively clean pocket. But the perfect play-call is useless if the quarterback can’t make the throw, and…
Shanahan will get torn apart for his late-game play-calling. The fact that he called only two run plays over the last 10 minutes of the game will certainly be a thing. But he gave his quarterback, whose contract made him the highest-paid player in the history of the league at one point, multiple opportunities to win the game. That’s all you can ask of a coach. The play-calling couldn’t have been much better. If Garoppolo makes either of those two plays, Shanahan’s run-pass ratio wouldn’t be a story. We’d be celebrating the next great offensive mind instead.
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