Why Kentucky Will Win The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
– Kentucky HAS to win the turnover battle. The offense doesn’t do a whole lot of things all that consistently well – there isn’t the running game like there was last year – and the defense doesn’t do enough to stop NC State cold, but this team picks off passes.
Granted, six came against Mississippi State, and three more came against Tennessee, but that matters. Creating bulk takeaways is what the Cats need to do. Even though there have been just two interceptions in the last four games, the five fumble recoveries in the last two made up for them.
NC State doesn’t have a massive turnover issue, but the passing game threw 12 picks on the season.
– There isn’t enough of a NC State running game to worry about. The ground game rumbled for 270 yards against Wake Forest in the opener, and that’s been about it. This is a soft UK defensive front that can be hit hard against a commitment to the ground game, but the Wolfpack will want to throw.
– Kentucky has guys. There might not be the NFL talents across the board like other SEC teams will boast, but Terry Wilson is a veteran quarterback who knows how to manage an offense, the running backs are fine, and the bulk on the lines will be a problem for the Pack. As always, this is a team that has its style, and it makes you play to it. However …
Why NC State Will Win The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
– Kentucky just isn’t very good at college football this season. It’s okay, and the 4-6 record is a bit misleading – it’s a six-win-caliber team if it had its normal schedule with non-conference wins – but it doesn’t do any one thing particularly well. The offense only worked against the miserable defenses in the SEC – Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and and South Carolina.
NC State’s three losses came to the three high-powered offenses on the slate – North Carolina, Miami and against the Virginia Tech running game. In general, the Wolfpack were fine against the teams that didn’t do any one thing at a high level.
More specifically …
– The defensive did a great job of being disruptive. There weren’t a lot of takeaways, and the pressure didn’t force mistakes, but the linebacking corps was terrific at getting into the backfield on a steady basis.
It stings that star tackle Asim McNeill is leaving early for the NFL, but he’s expected to clog up the inside one more time – everything works around the all-star. Linebackers Payton Wilson on the outside and Isaiah Moore know how to bottle up mediocre offensive backfields.
– QB Bailey Hockman will throw a pick – he has given up eight on the year – but he’s also playing well with two straight 300-yard games. There’s just enough from the veteran running backs to balance things out, but if Hockman is on, State should be able to keep pushing.
This isn’t a Kentucky team built to get into firefights. NC State won’t come up with anything special offensively, but UK is 1-4 when allowing more than 230 passing yards, and the one win came against a Mississippi State team that couldn’t do anything else.
Hockman has thrown for 230 or more in four of the last five games.