The Dallas Cowboys trounced the Washington Redskins 47-16 to finish the 2019 season at a mediocre 8-8. The offense secured a lead in the first quarter and never relinquished it.
The game plan and play calling against Washington was vintage Kellen Moore. The offensive coordinator for the Cowboys called a game similar in many ways to the majority of his previous victories. Moore’s game plans, when they work, feature relative balance between shotgun and traditional snaps (balance in this context means having at least 30% of the snaps from under center not necessarily 50/50) and a balanced run/pass ratio (balance in this context means throwing less than 70%) and then using play-action.
The Context
This weekly examination of the Cowboys play calling began as a simple question: would Moore, the guy touted as having a great football mind, be less predictable than the previous coordinator, Scott Linehan?
Linehan was predictable in the most pedestrian of ways: he called running plays on more than 80% of the snaps the quarterback took from under center, and he called passing plays on more than 80% of the shotgun snaps.
This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is any less predictable than Linehan based on the formation and play calling mentioned above.
You can read the stats from all the previous games here.
The Raw Data from Week 17 versus the Washington Redskins
Where these stats differ from the official game logs, it is because we have intentionally included plays nullified by penalties and/or we included scrambles by the quarterback as passing attempts.
The most snaps the Cowboys have run on offense this year was the 75 in Week 13 against Buffalo.
Dallas ran 74 offensive plays against Washington. Quarterback Dak Prescott was under center for 33 of those plays (44.5%) and in the shotgun for 41 plays (55.4%).
Moore called 35 running plays, 27 pass attempts, one designed run by the quarterback off play-action, and 11 pass attempts off play-action.
First half snaps under center
The Dallas offense ran 40 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 13 of those plays.
Of the 13 snaps from under center in the first half:
- ten were runs;
- three were play-action pass attempts.
First half snaps from shotgun
Prescott was in the shotgun for 27 snaps in the first half. Moore called:
- six runs;
- 19 passes;
- two play-action pass attempts.
In the first half, Moore called 16 runs and 24 passes.
This type of balanced play calling in the first half is typical of Moore this year. He called runs on 40% of the snaps, and Prescott was in the shotgun less than 70% of the time (67.5%).
In terms of the predictability discussed above, Moore called runs less than 80% of the under center snaps (76%), and he called less than 80% passes from the shotgun (77.7%).
Moore had Prescott use play-action on more than 20% of the first-half passing attempts (5 of 24).
The thing that stands out the most about the Cowboys first half is the success they had on first down, particularly when they ran the ball. Dallas averaged 4.4 yards a carry on first down. They had 10 carries for 44 yards. Although two of those carries were negated by penalty, so officially, they had eight runs on first down for 36 yards (4.5 yards per carry).
This has really been the story for Kellen Moore all year long: when the Cowboys can run the ball successfully on first down, they tend to score points, and then Moore can stay balanced and unpredictable, and they win.
Moore’s play calling has been excellent in games that Dallas can run the ball efficiently. It is when they can’t run the ball, especially on first down, that his offense has struggled.
Second half snaps from under center
Dallas ran 34 plays in the second half. Prescott was under center for 20 plays and in the shotgun for 14.
On those 20 snaps from under center, Moore called:
- 14 rushes;
- one pass;
- five play-action passes.
Second half snaps from the shotgun
Prescott was in the shotgun for 14 plays in the second half, Moore called:
- five rushes;
- seven pass attempts;
- one quarterback run off play-action;
- one play-action pass.
In the second half, Moore called 20 runs and 14 passes.
The Cowboys continued to have success running the ball in the second half. Dallas finished the day with 223 rushing yards on 36 attempts (6.2 yards per carry).
This column has often denounced Moore for not calling enough play-action runs for quarterback Dak Prescott. They used them so effectively in Weeks 1-3, but then didn’t try it at all in Weeks 4-6. Moore would later go five games, in Weeks 10-14, with calling just one (three games) or zero (two games) play-action runs for Prescott.
In Week 17 against Washington, Moore called one play-action run, and Prescott galloped for 22 yards on third down on a drive that would eventually result in a touchdown.
Totals for the game
Moore called 74 plays in Week 17. Prescott was under center for 33 plays and in the shotgun for 41.
Moore called 36 running plays:
- 24 when Prescott started under center;
- 11 from the shotgun;
- one off play-action (from shotgun).
Moore called 38 pass attempts:
- one after the quarterback dropped back from center;
- eight off pay-action when Prescott starts under center;
- 26 from the shotgun;
- three off play-action in the shotgun.
The Dallas offense was balanced in terms of the under center/shotgun distribution (33 under center compared to 41 in shotgun), and they were equally balanced in terms of run/pass ratio (36 runs and 38 pass attempts).
These numbers are characteristic of Moore’s play calling in the games the Cowboys won. Only two of their eight victories came in games that the Cowboys weren’t balanced; the only games Dallas won in which they went pass heavy or used the shotgun primarily were against the Lions and Giants.
Conclusions
Moore got back to running from the shotgun (11 times) and using play-action (12 times).
Moore had one of his best games in relation to the 80% threshold associated with Linehan’s predictability. Dallas ran on 72.7% of the snaps that Prescott took under center (24 of 33). Moore called a pass on 70.7% of the shotgun snaps (29 of 41).
Moore’s play calling was a paragon of balance against the Redskins in Week 17, much like it was against the Giants (Week 1), Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles (Week 7), and Rams.
It is difficult to resist the temptation to simplify: it seems like the Cowboys win games when they can run the ball effectively and lose them when Moore abandons the run and fails to maintain balance in his play-calling.
While the ability to run the ball successfully is probably a partial cause of their ability to win games, Moore’s tendency in 2019 to become one dimensional (frequent use of the shotgun and passing on nearly every play) could be a consequence of being behind on the scoreboard, rather than a cause of the loss.
That being said, many pundits will still argue that Moore abandoned the running game too quickly and too thoroughly in several games when they were losing by less than two touchdowns.
Kellen Moore demonstrated in 2019 that he is an excellent play caller when the Cowboys can run the ball effectively. The real challenge for Moore in 2020 is trying to figure out how to move the ball and score points when they face defenses that can shut down their running game (regardless of whether the shutting down is based on superior line play or stacking the box). This responsibility has to fall on their quarterback, Dak Prescott, and their receiving corps.
Miscellaneous Observations
None of the stats that normally get discussed here (third down conversion rates, yards per drive, points per drive, snap counts etc.) seem even remotely relevant right now.
The Dallas Cowboys appear to be looking for a new head coach. They have an offensive coordinator who didn’t exactly take the NFL by storm in his first season. They have a defense that didn’t live up to the lofty pre-season expectations.
Given the potential for big changes in the Dallas Cowboys organization, this should be an fascinating offseason.
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