The Kansas State Wildcats (3-3, 0-3 Big 12) visit Big XII co-tenant Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2, 2-2) Saturday for a noon ET kickoff at Jones AT&T Stadium. Below, we look at the Kansas State vs. Texas Tech odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Kansas State has lost three straight since beginning conference play vs. the Iowa State Cyclones (33-20 in Week 7), Oklahoma Sooners (37-31 Oct. 2) and Oklahoma State Cowboys (31-20 Sept. 25).
The Wildcats are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and 4-2 Over/Under (O/U) with the second-toughest schedule in the nation according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Texas Tech has alternated between winning and losing over the past four games with the latest being a 41-14 blowout victory at the Kansas Jayhawks Oct. 16. According to Sagarin, the Red Raiders have played the 82nd-toughest schedule. They are 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U on the season.
Kansas State has won five consecutive meetings with Texas Tech (4-1 ATS) and the last two victories came as a 1-point underdog.
Kansas State at Texas Tech odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Kansas State -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Texas Tech -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Kansas State +0.5 (-108) | Texas Tech -0.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 60.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Kansas State at Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Kansas State 30, Texas Tech 24
Money line
BET KANSAS STATE (-108) for 1.25 units for several reasons. First of all, the Wildcats should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
According to Football Outsiders, Texas Tech ranks 66th in defensive line yards per snap and 67th in offensive line yards per snap. Kansas State ranks 37th in defensive line yards per snap and 35th in offensive line yards per snap.
Mind you, Kansas State has played the second-hardest schedule in the country.
Furthermore, if you can run the ball against the Red Raiders then you’ll beat them. Texas Tech’s defense ranks 107th in open field yards, 113th in rushing predicted points added (PPA) and 101st in rushing success rate. Kansas State ranks 31st in rushing PPA and eighth in rushing success rate (both in non-garbage time).
Also, this is a much better spot for the Wildcats. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells was hired in 2018. Over that span, the Red Raiders are 7-7-1 ATS at home with a minus-4.4-point spread differential and 9-12-1 ATS vs. Big 12 teams.
On the other hand, Kansas State hired Chris Klieman to succeed longtime coach Bill Snyder in 2019. Since then, the Wildcats are 13-8 ATS in conference play and 7-4 ATS on the road.
Finally, the betting count is split between these two sides, but more than 80% of the cash has been wagered on Kansas State, according to Pregame.com.
The “wiseguys” see value in the road favorite while the public is torn since the Wildcats are on a three-game losing skid when visiting a conference foe with a winning record.
BET KANSAS STATE (-108).
Against the spread
PASS unless Kansas State’s money line climbs above -140. I’d then lay up to 3 points with the Wildcats. But, in this case, the money line and spreads are identical.
Over/Under
PASS because I don’t have a grasp on the Kansas State-Texas Tech total. According to Pregame.com, roughly 90% of the action is on the Over, but the total hasn’t really budged since the opener.
That suggests oddsmakers are happy with taking more pro-Over money. So, maybe the play is a tiny wager on the Under 60.5 (-110). But I’ll stay away because I don’t have another read on the total aside from the “line freeze” angle.
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