The Kansas City Royals (56-70) open a four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (69-58) Thursday. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Royals vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Royals RHP Brad Keller (8-12, 5.43 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 129 1/3 IP.
- Has a 3.93 ERA, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 over 34 1/3 IP across six starts in the second half.
- Sports an xFIP and FIP nearly a full run lower than his surface ERA and has been hurt by a .348 BABIP – the highest in the league amongst qualified starters.
Mariners LHP Yusei Kikuchi (7-7, 4.22 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 132 1/3 IP.
- Gave up 7 ER on 7 H and 3 BB with 2 K over 2 2/3 IP Aug. 20 at the Houston Astros.
- Has given up 7 ER twice while logging a 6.35 ERA across seven second-half starts; he has just two quality starts in that span.
Royals at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mariners -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-155) | Mariners -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Mariners 5, Royals 3
Money line (ML)
These two clubs probably aren’t as far apart as their records suggest and it’s difficult to find a very strong reason to take one over the other.
Both pitchers have faced their share of struggles throughout the season, neither team’s offensive platoon splits are particularly favorable and both bullpens have performed similarly over the second half of the season and in August.
The Mariners are one of only four teams in the league to have a .500 or better record and a negative run differential. They have the worst run differential and the best record of those four teams. Seattle is probably the play, but I’m not looking to lay 80 cents on the dollar to back it.
PASS on the money line and seek value elsewhere.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
There may be value to back the Mariners on the run line despite concerns about the game in general.
Seattle has the second-best cover percentage in the league and the fifth-best percentage at home. The Mariners are rested after a day off Wednesday while the Royals are entering their seventh game of a 10-game road trip.
Seattle won by 2 or more runs 10 times in its 13 August victories. The confidence isn’t super high but consider a value-based partial-unit play on the MARINERS -1.5 (+122).
Over/Under (O/U)
Though neither team is particularly electric with the bats, both pitching staffs are capable of giving up crooked numbers with shaky starts and very average bullpen arms.
This number feels just too low and we’re seeing it slightly higher around the industry so hit the OVER 7.5 (-130) while you can.
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