The Milwaukee Brewers (56-39) host the Kansas City Royals (37-55) Tuesday for the first game of their two-game interleague series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Mike Minor is Kansas City’s projected starter. He is 6-8 with a 5.67 ERA (106 1/3 IP, 67 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 across 19 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 14-6, with 4 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 2 K July 10 at the Cleveland Indians.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 71 at-bats with a .197/.256/.338 slash line, 22/6 K/BB, 3 HR and 6 RBIs.
LHP Eric Lauer takes the mound for the Brewers. He is 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over nine starts and three relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-0, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 3 K against the Cincinnati Reds July 9.
- 2021 home stats: 2-3 with a 4.36 ERA (33 IP, 16 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 2.0 K/BB rate across six starts and one relief outing.
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Royals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Brewers -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-135) | Brewers -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 5, Royals 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the BREWERS (-165) for a quarter unit only because Milwaukee’s money line is at the fringe of being too expensive. Lauer is a back of the rotation starter and the Brewers bats have been inconsistent this season.
Furthermore, the Royals are 6-3 in interleague games while the Brewers are 2-5 in interleague matchups. Milwaukee’s road record of 29-18 is much better than their home record (27-21).
However, Minor took the loss in five of his last six starts while giving up at least 4 earned runs in each of those five losses and the Brewers won 16 of their last 22 games entering Tuesday.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since I only slightly “lean” to Milwaukee’s money line so the Brewers’ run line doesn’t offer a big enough payout.
Moreover, Milwaukee is just 17-22 ATS as a home favorite this season and Kansas City is 21-18 ATS as a road underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-115) for a half unit because Milwaukee struggles at home and K.C.’s lineup has been awful on the road.
The Brewers offense in the bottom six at home in wRC+, wOBA and OPS. The Royals are in the bottom five on the road in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, BB/K and 22nd in hard-contact rate.
Plus, the Under cashed in Milwaukee’s last four games as a home favorite and three of the last four Royals-Brewers meetings dating back to last September.
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