Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Kansas City Royals at Milwaukee Brewers sports betting odds and lines, with MLB betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Kansas City Royals (21-29) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (23-26) for the first game of a three-game set at Miller Park at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Royals-Brewers MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Royals at Brewers: Projected starting pitchers

LHP Danny Duffy vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Duffy: 3-3 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 46 2/3 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 3-0, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 4 K and 4 BB at the Cleveland Indians (Sept. 9).
  • 2020 on the road: 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 31 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

Houser: 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 46 2/3 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 12-0, with 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER (7 R), 5 K and 4 BB against the Chicago Cubs (Sept. 13).
  • 2020 at home: 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 14 K and 7 BB in 18 IP over 4 starts.

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Royals at Brewers: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Royals

  • OF Jorge Soler (oblique) out
  • RP Ian Kennedy (calf) out

Brewers

  • OF Lorenzo Cain (personal) opt-out
  • C Manny Pina (knee) out

Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

Royals at Brewers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.

Prediction

Brewers 5, Royals 2

Money line (ML)

The BREWERS (-162) have been steamed up from an opening line of -141 and I think it’s due to Houser’s splits against right-handed and left-handed batters.

The Royals (+145) have a lineup with seven right-handed batters, one switch-hitter and one lefty. Righties are hitting just .195/.262/.299 against him, compared to the .349/.430/.557 slash line of lefty bats.

Kansas City’s lineup is already below-average in several categories so it’s a good matchup for Houser. Plus, the Brewers are 9-5 versus left-handed starters.

Another point of interest is the Royals have won seven of their previous eight games and yet the market is betting Milwaukee. There is a ton of big games being played across multiple sports so this is definitely sharp money moving this line.

TAKE THE BREWERS (-162) before it gets too expensive. New to sports betting? A $162 bet on the Brewers (-162) pays a $100 profit if Milwaukee beats Kansas City.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Brewers -1.5 (+125) has the worst run line record in MLB (17-32 RL) and the Royals +1.5 (-150) have the 8th-highest RL win record (28-22 RL). Duffy’s road splits are much stronger than his home splits and the Royals are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

However, there’s no way I am playing the Brewers money line and the Royals against the spread but this info is good enough for me to PASS THE RUN LINE.

Over/Under (O/U)

I “LEAN” UNDER 9 (-110) in Royals-Brewers because of Houser’s splits against righties and Duffy’s 2020 road performance.

Both offenses are below-average in runs per game, homers hit, batting average and OPS. The Royals have the 4th-lowest Under percentage in away games.

A “lean” is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.

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