The Kansas City Royals (21-29) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (23-26) for the first game of a three-game set at Miller Park at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Royals-Brewers MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Royals at Brewers: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Danny Duffy vs. RHP Adrian Houser
Duffy: 3-3 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 46 2/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Win, 3-0, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 4 K and 4 BB at the Cleveland Indians (Sept. 9).
- 2020 on the road: 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 31 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
Houser: 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 46 2/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 12-0, with 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER (7 R), 5 K and 4 BB against the Chicago Cubs (Sept. 13).
- 2020 at home: 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 14 K and 7 BB in 18 IP over 4 starts.
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Royals at Brewers: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Royals
- OF Jorge Soler (oblique) out
- RP Ian Kennedy (calf) out
Brewers
- OF Lorenzo Cain (personal) opt-out
- C Manny Pina (knee) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Royals at Brewers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.
Prediction
Brewers 5, Royals 2
Money line (ML)
The BREWERS (-162) have been steamed up from an opening line of -141 and I think it’s due to Houser’s splits against right-handed and left-handed batters.
The Royals (+145) have a lineup with seven right-handed batters, one switch-hitter and one lefty. Righties are hitting just .195/.262/.299 against him, compared to the .349/.430/.557 slash line of lefty bats.
Kansas City’s lineup is already below-average in several categories so it’s a good matchup for Houser. Plus, the Brewers are 9-5 versus left-handed starters.
Another point of interest is the Royals have won seven of their previous eight games and yet the market is betting Milwaukee. There is a ton of big games being played across multiple sports so this is definitely sharp money moving this line.
TAKE THE BREWERS (-162) before it gets too expensive. New to sports betting? A $162 bet on the Brewers (-162) pays a $100 profit if Milwaukee beats Kansas City.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Brewers -1.5 (+125) has the worst run line record in MLB (17-32 RL) and the Royals +1.5 (-150) have the 8th-highest RL win record (28-22 RL). Duffy’s road splits are much stronger than his home splits and the Royals are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
However, there’s no way I am playing the Brewers money line and the Royals against the spread but this info is good enough for me to PASS THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
I “LEAN” UNDER 9 (-110) in Royals-Brewers because of Houser’s splits against righties and Duffy’s 2020 road performance.
Both offenses are below-average in runs per game, homers hit, batting average and OPS. The Royals have the 4th-lowest Under percentage in away games.
A “lean” is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.
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