The Kansas City Royals (36-51) and AL Central rival Cleveland Indians (43-42) continue their four-game series at Progressive Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cleveland won the first game of this series Thursday with a late-inning rally in which the Indians scored 6 runs in the final two frames to beat the Royals 7-4.
Season series: Indians lead 6-1.
RHP Brad Keller makes his 19th start for the Royals. He is 6-9 with a 6.39 ERA (87 1/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.82 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-2, with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K Sunday against the Minnesota Twins.
- vs. Indians on the current roster: 52 at-bats with a .212/.323/.269 slash line, 10/7 K/BB, 0 HR and 3 RBIs.
RHP Triston McKenzie takes the ball for the Indians. He is 1-3 with a 6.38 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 8.3 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 across 10 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 0 H, 4 BB and 0 K in Cleveland’s 5-4 win over the Seattle Mariners June 12.
- McKenzie got a win May 6 against the Royals with a stat line of 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 5 K in Cleveland’s 4-0 victory.
- vs. Royals on the current roster: 55 at-bats with a .145/.262/.218 slash line, 19/9 K/BB, 1 HR and 4 RBIs.
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Royals at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Indians -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-155) | Indians -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Royals 7, Indians 5
Money line (ML)
GIMME the ROYALS (+125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit. I’d argue K.C. has the edge in the starting pitching matchup even though Keller has been awful this season because McKenzie’s pitching peripherals are more concerning.
Their ERAs are nearly identical but Keller has a better xFIP and SIERA and McKenzie grades in the first percentile in both exit velocity and hard-hit rate, the second percentile in barrel rate and 23rd percentile in expected wOBA.
Furthermore, the starters’ basic stat lines against their respective Friday opponent are pretty even but Keller’s advanced numbers are more impressive than McKenzie’s.
Keller has a 2.42 FIP with a minus-3.3° launch angle and 89.1 mph exit velocity against active Indians hitters while McKenzie has a 3.87 FIP with a 19.5° launch angle and a 92.7 mph exit velocity against current Royals batters.
That being said, I’m sticking with the Royals’ First 5 Innings line because Cleveland’s bullpen is far better than K.C.’s and I don’t want to risk the Royals relievers choking this game away like they did Thursday.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because K.C.’s run lines for both the full game and First 5 Innings are too expensive.
Typically, I’d prefer to lay it with the underdog’s First 5 Innings run line to get a half-run worth of insurance on top of my money line wager but BetMGM isn’t offering that as an option in Royals-Indians.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-105) for a quarter unit, if at all, because the market is barreling into the Over, which has steamed the total up from the 9.5-run opener and I hate following a crowd in sports betting.
However, both starters are still finding their groove in the big leagues and have performed like back of the rotation guys thus far in 2021.
Also, a majority of the situational trends suggest a higher-scoring affair including Cleveland’s 24-15-2 O/U record at home and 22-15-3 O/U record in divisional games. The Over also cashed in four of the past five Royals-Indians meetings this season.
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