The Kansas City Royals (33-46) and Boston Red Sox (50-31) wrap up their four-game series Thursday at Fenway Park with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Kris Bubic is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. He is 2-3 with a 4.47 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 48 1/3 IP over six starts and seven relief appearances.
Bubic hasn’t pitched more than 4 2/3 innings in a single outing since May 28, giving up 3 runs on 3 hits in his last outing in just 2/3 of an inning. He’s worked in relief his last three appearances with his last start coming June 13. He earned the win June 18 against the Red Sox allowing 2 runs in 2 2/3 IP.
RHP Nathan Eovaldi is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 8-4 with a 3.67 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 90 2/3 IP over 16 starts.
Eovaldi was hot and cold in June with three starts of 1 or 0 earned runs allowed and two starts where he allowed at least 3 runs in less than 6 innings. He allowed 3 runs in 4 innings against the Royals June 20 in the Red Sox’s 7-3 loss to Kansas City.
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Royals at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:22 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Red Sox -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (+105) | Red Sox -1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Royals 3
Money line (ML)
The Royals carry their eight-game losing skid into this one while the Red Sox look to extend their win streak to seven games. Boston is 10-6 in games Eovaldi starts, including a recent 5-2 stretch since May 22.
I like the Red Sox to win this one outright, but at -240 I would either make a small wager or PASS on the money line altogether.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
After failing to cover the spread in the first two games of the series the Red Sox finally did so Wednesday night with a 6-2 win at home. Boston’s pitching staff has struggled a bit lately but it got back on track Wednesday and should continue tonight with Eovaldi on the bump.
Bet the RED SOX -1.5 (-125) to cover the spread and win by at least two runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Sitting at 9.5 runs the Over/Under remains on the higher side for the series finale. The total has only gone Over in one of the first three games of the series and if Eovaldi is on tonight it’ll be hard for the score to push above this total.
Bet the UNDER 9.5 (-110).
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