The Kansas City Royals (33-43) and Boston Red Sox (47-31) open a four-game series Monday at Fenway Park with first pitch coming at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Danny Duffy is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. He is 4-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 44 2/3 IP over eight starts and one relief appearance.
Duffy has been eased back into things since returning from the injured list Wednesday, pitching 2 innings against the Yankees in that start and 1 inning of relief Friday against the Rangers. He lost his last two starts before landing on the IL in May. He’s 0-6 with a 7.26 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox.
RHP Garrett Richards is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 4-5 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in 76 IP over 15 starts.
Richards hasn’t picked up a win since May 19 and struggled mightily his last time out. He pitched just 1 2/3 innings Wednesday against the Rays, allowing 4 earned runs on 3 hits and 4 walks while giving up 2 home runs. He is 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 games (five starts) against the Royals in his career.
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Royals at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:29 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Red Sox -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Roayls +1.5 (-145) | Red Sox -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Red Sox 8, Royals 4
Money line (ML)
The Red Sox are coming off a sweep of the Yankees, outscoring New York 18-7 in the three-game series. On the other hand the Royals have lost five straight, four of which were by at least three runs.
I like the RED SOX (-155) to win outright at home where they are 23-17, significantly better than Kansas City’s 15-24 away record.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Red Sox have covered the spread seven times in their last 10 games. The Royals are just 4-6 ATS in that same stretch, struggling to keep games competitive in the last week.
With Duffy on the mound and being unlikely to go more than a few innings, the Red Sox should get to the Royals’ bullpen early, which benefits Boston. Take the RED SOX -1.5 (+120) to cover.
Over/Under (O/U)
Richards has gone cold recently, so he could be tagged for 3 or 4 runs in a fairly short outing. The Royals haven’t been plating many runs, however, scoring a total of 6 in their last four games.
With Boston’s offense remaining hot against the Yankees I like the OVER 11 (-110) tonight at the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
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