The Big 12 bubble landscape is becoming more favorable for USC as the calendar moves into March.
Texas Tech, which lost last Saturday to TCU, lost again to Kansas on Tuesday night. USC is gaining a little more separation from Texas Tech on the bubble, but there’s more to the story than a simple comparison of the Trojans and the Red Raiders.
The Big 12 and Big Ten have cluttered bubble situations with multiple bubble teams in play. In addition to Texas Tech losing consecutive games over the past few days, Oklahoma State has done the same thing. Those two teams are both in big trouble for an at-large berth. They are moving in the wrong direction.
Notable is the fact that Oklahoma State and Texas Tech play each other this Saturday. Had the Cowboys and Red Raiders both won their most recent games, this upcoming contest would be a “winner in” bubble game in which the loser is still in the hunt for the NCAA Tournament. However, because of the recent losses by both teams, this game will be more of a “loser out” bubble game in which the loser will have to win the Big 12 Tournament just to make the NCAA Tournament.
If Oklahoma State beats Tech on the road, the Cowboys’ NCAA odds probably will rise above 50-50. If Tech beats Oklahoma State, the Red Raiders and Cowboys would both be near the cut line and would need at least one win at the Big 12 Tournament to feel moderately good about their position.
Ultimately, it’s very unlikely that both teams can get into the NCAA Tournament, which is great for USC. That’s at least one bubble spot the Big 12 won’t claim. The hope for USC is that both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will miss the field. A Tech win on Saturday, followed by losses for both teams in the first game of the Big 12 Tournament, could bring about that result.
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