Josh Allen is the only thing stopping the Bills from supplanting the Patriots

Josh Allen might just determine the outcome in the AFC East.

This started as a story on why the Buffalo Bills should be the overwhelming favorites in the AFC East. It started as an article wondering why there’s common belief that New England Patriots (+130), led by Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer (*shudders*), can hold onto the AFC East after the Bills (+125) showed so much progress in 2019.

The obvious answer is, Bill Belichick.

But when looking at the two rosters on paper, it’s really not even close. The Buffalo Bills are a superior team. Both teams lost in the wild card round of the playoffs last year. And while the Patriots lost quarterback Tom Brady, linebackers Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy, kicker Stephen Gostkowski and safety Duron Harmon, among others, the Bills retained most of their talent. New England was in cap hell during the offseason, which prevented it from adding any player of note, while Buffalo stocked up: receiver Stefon Diggs, defensive linemen Mario Addison, Vernon Butler and Quinton Jefferson, cornerback Josh Norman and linebacker A.J. Klein, among others.

Belichick may be the greatest coach of all time, but his ability to bridge a talent gap can only go so far — especially in a year when Brady isn’t around to help the coach. When Brady went down in 2008, a Matt Cassel-led Patriots team went 10-6. Not bad, right? Except that it was roughly the same team as the 2007 squad, which went 16-0. As good as they were, the Patriots regressed without Brady. The 2019 Patriots went 12-4. It’s not insane to suggest they could experience a six-game swing — just like they did in 2008 — with a wildly challenging schedule.

There are so many reasons to like the Bills. But again, this was — at least initially — a story about why the Bills aren’t getting enough love. I changed my mind as I did my research and watched game film. Why?

The answer is, again, obvious: Josh Allen.

Watching Allen rumble, bumble, fumble and stumble his way through a playoff game was like a party drug. His ability to create chaos on TV was unique. He was like the Snookie of the 2019-20 NFL playoffs. So much drama. Allen was upending what we knew about how quarterback should be played (and not exactly in the good ways that Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes have done). He was 24 of 46 (52%) for 264 yards with no touchdowns and (miraculously) no interceptions. He also had nine carries for 92 yards (headlined by a designed 42-yard quarterback sweep, which I ran a lot in middle school) and a touchdown reception for 16 yards. The play — or maybe just the celebration — sort of summed up his performance.

Chaos.

Allen is a lot of fun. His ability to run like Cam Newton is unique. His ability to rocket the ball like Aroldis Chapman is sensational. If only Allen could hit the strike zone. Honestly, if only Allen could hit the broad side of the Empire State building. (Stick with me Bills fans. I’m not going to roast Allen for this entire story.)

Allen also has a tough critic in 2020: Diggs. The malcontent receiver is coming from an offense where Kirk Cousins’ slow processing power and lack of aggressiveness caused the quarterback to miss Diggs too many times. Diggs didn’t seem to like playing with Cousins. And so if Allen looks roughly like the same quarterback in 2020 — probably aggressive enough, but not nearly accurate enough — Diggs may experience similar problems with a different quarterback. What could go wrong?

On occasion, quarterbacks can clean up their accuracy issues. Allen, for example, made a major leap in his completion percentage from 2018 (52.8%) to 2019 (58.8%). His touchdown-to-interception ratio also improved significantly from 10:12 in 2018 to 20:9 in 2019. Per Pro Football Focus, his big-time throw percentage has jumped from 2.8% in 2018 to 5% in 2019 and his deep passing percentage jumped from 14.8% to 19.7%. His statistical progress has come, in part, due to a tightening of the reigns in terms of play-calling. When the Bills drafted Allen out of Wyoming, they knew they were getting a developmental prospect. To their satisfaction, he is, indeed, developing — though perhaps not as quickly as they’d like.

So we’re at torturous juncture where it’s time to figure out: Is he good or isn’t he?

This story — at least in recent history — doesn’t have a pleasant ending. The 2018 Chicago Bears had an elite defense, which seemed likely to sustain its play in 2019. And there was more reason for optimism: Mitchell Trubisky seemed to be turning the corner as a passer. Reality struck, and it wasn’t pretty. It’s a similar story with the optimism that surrounded the Jacksonville Jaguars after the 2017 season and an AFC championship appearance. Blake Bortles was going to be good. He was this close. Until he wasn’t. And then the Jags fell apart while their best players forced their way off the team — or tried to. This isn’t to say the Bills will go the way of the Bears and Jaguars. This isn’t to say that they won’t.

Allen is at a pivot point in his career. He can either start hitting his receivers — particularly in playoff games, if he gets there — or he can turn into Trubisky and/or Bortles. Allen can start taking command of football games — or the Bills can go the way of the Jaguars and the Bears. With coach Sean McDermott running the operation, there’s reason for optimism. He has been terrific. With all the physical tools Allen has (which are, by the way, far superior to Bortles and Trubisky), there’s reason to have faith.

But don’t bet on Allen, the living cliche of a bust (huge arm but significant accuracy and diagnostic issues), improving while Belichick, the greatest coach of all time, regresses. Maybe Vegas knows what it’s doing keeping these teams tight for the AFC East race.

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