The world is changing around us in totally uncontrollable and — at least in our lifetime — totally unprecedented ways amid the coronavirus pandemic. So let’s take comfort in the fact that, in the NFL, history seems to be repeating itself. There’s a pattern to the chaos of the NFL draft.
The Green Bay Packers traded up in the first round last night to select quarterback Jordan Love at 26th overall. The pick had a familiar feeling. Just 15 years ago, the Packers were on the board at 24th overall when they selected a quarterback, “an excellent passer who combines arm strength, mechanics and delivery to make all the throws,” according to DraftInsiders.com in 2005. The Packers picked a young, undeveloped gunslinger in Aaron Rodgers, even though they had the gunslinger of all gunslingers, Brett Favre.
So here we are, with a fresh cycle of that same process. In present day, Love is Rodgers and Rodgers is Favre. Here’s how our Steven Ruiz described what Love does well: “Insert your arm strength cliches here. Can make all the throws, etc.” Yes, Love has a cannon. That arm is radioactive. He can really whip it. His ball velocity is strong enough to put more holes in that porous Wisconsin cheese.
The problems, however, are probably more pronounced than what Rodgers were dealing with when he was coming out of Cal. There are moments — and way too many of them — when Love seems to forget he’s playing against a defense. And that defense gets its hands on the football, which showed with his 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in 2019. Love’s offense changed last season, which may explain the regression. His 2018 tape is much better. So Love is more Jay Cutler (without the sideline-smoking sassy attitude) than he is Rodgers (who has his own non-sideline-smoking sassy attitude).
Because of Love’s shortcomings, he’s not going to supplant Rodgers right away. The Packers are going to have to work with Love to prepare him for the rigors of the NFL, of reading at pro defense (which moves staggeringly faster than Utah State’s opponents in the Mountain West) and for the challenges of staying out of Rodgers’ way.
But make no mistake: this is a shrewd selection. Sure, the Packers could have added talent in the draft that would have made an impact in 2020. If all goes well, Love will not make an impact this season. But it’s better to have too many good quarterbacks than too few, especially when the starter is as established as Rodgers. The too-many-quarterbacks conundrum becomes an issue when the starter stinks. Bill Belichick was always trying to line up Tom Brady’s successor, even if he didn’t retain that successor (See: Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett). And as we saw, the end can come for an elite starter, like Brady, Favre and eventually for Rodgers. When that end comes, the team needs to be prepared.
In 2017, Rodgers didn’t quite looked as unstoppable as he did from 2008 to 2016. That was the season when Rodgers posted a career high interception percentage (2.5) and dealt with a handful of injuries. It was a tiny taste of regression and decline. The 36-year-old may eventually slow down, even if Packers coach Matt LaFluer helped Rodgers make a major comeback in 2019. It’s the right time to begin thinking about a successor, who — while waiting in the wings — will serve as an incessant motivator for Rodgers. That could complicate Rodgers’ relationship with LaFluer and the Packers at first. But I think Rodgers will quickly see just how much work Love needs. There’s plenty of runway. And though Rodgers would have probably preferred Green Bay take Clemson receiver Tee Higgins (who is still available), the veteran QB will probably forget about it when the 2020 season gets underway.
Rodgers is not done yet. The Packers have time — which Love badly needs. But there’s no doubt: Love is in a position to supplant Rodgers. We’re witnessing the first stages of the Packers preparing to send Rodgers packing, just like they did with Favre.
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