Jon Gruden’s Bad Red Zone History in Tampa Bay Continues with the Raiders

Raiders Wire examines Jon Gruden’s red zone issues and how it has carried over from his time has the head coach in Tampa Bay

The Raiders offense has been the talk of Raider nation after plummeting at the end of the 2019 season. An attack that went seven straight weeks with 24 points or more for the first time since 2002 finished with 12.5 points per game mark in the last six games. The awful play cost them a chance at the playoffs losing games to Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos.

The crazy part about the finish was how efficient the offense was all season. The Offense was sixth in yards per drive according to Pro Football Reference and was tenth in offensive EPA, according to Ben Baldwin of the Athletic Seattle.

The Raiders were seventh in third-down conversion rate, which is the highest mark since Derek Carr became the starting quarterback in 2014. With all those numbers, the Raiders finished 24th overall in scoring offense and 20th in points per drive according to pro football reference.

What could cause such a discrepancy with an offense that is one of the most efficient in the league? The team, not putting points up in the red zone.

The Raiders finished with a red zone touchdown percentage of 52.8, which was 21st in the league. The 2019 offense was 14th in red zone opportunities improving from 27th in 2018 but still finished right around the same percentage, which was 22nd the previous season. For perspective, the four years before he came back from the booth, the Raiders average red zone touchdown percentage was 62.32, with an average ranking of 7.75.

Gruden performed in the red zone in his previous stint with the Raiders finishing in the top ten from 1999-2001. However, his best-ranked offense, which finished fifth in 2001, would have ranked 13th in 2019, where the importance of scoring touchdowns has grown with the rise of analytics. When taking a look at Gruden’s red zone history in Tampa Bay, it went downhill during his run with a new team.

During his seven-year stint with the Buccaneers Gruden led offensive units finished with a red zone percentage of 47.1 and an average ranking of 21.2. His last two seasons were his worst finishing 29th in 2007 and then 30th in 2008, which ultimately led to his firing and becoming the commentator for Monday Night Football. This led to Gruden never having an offense score more than 22 points per game.

Gruden’s conservative nature hurts him at times in the red zone with the old school mentality of taking three points instead of being aggressive. Having a quarterback who throws it away on fourth down doesn’t help either. But his playing calling in the red area can be repetitive as well with him depending on a particular set of passes and run plays.

For example, one of Gruden’s favorite play calls is a 2×2 set double jerk route out of the shotgun. After two years of running this play, teams can recognize it, and they become predictable. While it did lead to a game-winning touchdown against the Steelers in 2018, it led to a throwaway and a batted pass against the Broncos Week 17.

Even run designs become predictable in the red zone. The game-winning touchdown against the Chicago Bears was used again against the Green Bay Packers leading to a turnover on downs because the Packers recognized the play on tape.

One of the biggest gaffs was the lack of targets for Darren Waller in the red zone. While he led the team with 11, compared to his peers like Travis Kelce and George kittle, he was way behind the eightball when it comes to red-zone targets.

Inside the ten is worse where Waller was only targeted four times compared to Kelce’s 12. He scored two touchdowns out of those four targets, which makes it even more inexcusable.

Gruden is considered a grinder and a meticulous film junkie, but the red zone issue is a severe cause of concern. He has to make adjustments this offseason to his approach for the Raiders to score points and compete for a playoff spot. If this doesn’t change, it’s going to be a long 8 years.

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