With just under four minutes left in the Raiders game against the Dolphins Saturday night, the Raiders had just scored a touchdown on a huge 85-yard catch and run by Nelson Agholor. It broke a 16-16 tie and go up 22-16. Then Daniel Carlson missed the extra point to keep it a six-point game.
The touchdown seemed like a breakthrough, while the missed extra point had the feeling of something that could bite them later (as is often the case).
That “later” moment came less than a minute later. To be exact, it came 48 seconds later when Myles Gaskin took a pass at the line, broke a couple of tackles and was gone 59 yards to paydirt. The extra point was good and the Dolphins took a one-point lead with about three minutes left.
The Raiders got the ball with 2:55 left and started driving. A questionable pass interference penalty on Byron Jones would pick up 49 yards and put the Raiders instantly at the Miami 15-yard-line. Best-case scenarios were to wind the clock down to a few seconds and kick the game-winner or get in the end zone, adding a two-point conversion to force the Dolphins to drive the length of the field to tie it.
Suddenly the Raiders found themselves in position for somewhat of a third, and worse option. They were in third and goal from the one with 1:05 left. Not enough time to let the clock run to single digits and enough time, should they punch it in, to allow the Dolphins a shot at an answer.
Gruden sent in the call and it was for Derek Carr to kneel down, run the clock down to 19 seconds and kick the field goal.
The problem with that is it gave the Raiders just a two-point lead. This means the Dolphins need only get into field goal range to win it. That’s exactly what the Dolphins did too. On one play, the Raiders had a broken coverage and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw deep for Mack Hollins who made the catch for 34 yards. In the process, Arden Key grabbed Fitzpatrick’s facemask, tacking on 15 yards to put the Dolphins at the 26-yard-line. A play later, they won the game on a field goal of their own, ending the Raiders’ playoff hopes.
Even still, Gruden said he made the right decision in that scenario.
“I don’t regret taking a knee,” Gruden said to open his postgame press conference. “We wanted to give the Dolphins the ball with as little time left as possible with no timeouts. I thought we did that. [They had] 19 seconds left on their own 25-yard-line. They made a desperation play and we had a penalty on top of that. Inexcusable.”
Naturally, the first question was something to the effect of whether there any thought or discussion of scoring the touchdown and taking your chances.
“We did that against Kansas City, honestly,” Gruden responded. “We scored with 1:15 left and [Patrick] Mahomes went down and beat us. And we felt the play was to eliminate all the clock and all the timeouts and put them back with their back against the wall with 19 seconds left. I don’t regret it. I didn’t want Fitzpatrick to have the ball. He was doing a good job in the second half. I didn’t want him to be in a four-down situation. He’s a gunslinger. He was hot. That’s all I can say. I don’t regret it one bit, I just regret the results.”
First off, imagine putting Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins’ offense on the same plane as Patrick Mahomes and the World Champion Chiefs’ offense. That is either high praise for Fitzpatrick or the lowest praise imaginable for the Raiders’ defense to say the difference doesn’t matter.
Second, the ending of the Chiefs game was very different. Namely, it was a four-point game, so a field goal wouldn’t have been enough. They had to score the TD. And in so doing, they only took a three-point lead, not a potential seven-point lead. Also, the Chiefs took 1:19 for their drive, but they had 1:43 on the clock to do it and had the Raiders scored the TD, they would have left less than a minute on the clock. The Chiefs hadn’t scored their touchdown yet a minute into their drive, so even they might’ve had to settle for a field goal.
I pressed the issue a bit regarding the potential for forcing a one-minute game-tying TD drive as opposed to a 19-second game-winning field goal.
“There’s a lot of ways to look at this,” Gruden responded, cutting off the question. “But 19 seconds left, on your own 25-yard-line, with no timeouts left. I’ve called plays a long time. The probability of getting that done is remote. And there’s no guarantee if they get the ball that they don’t go for two. I’m not going to get into all the scenarios. We played it exactly like we wanted to play it. It was a heck of a job by our offense closing the deal, but unfortunately they made a desperation play and the penalty was horrific.”
Derek Carr echoed his head coach’s words almost to the letter; no regrets and so on. He even went as far as to say the call was “absolutely perfect.”
As remote as that probability is, it happened. How much more or less remote a possibility of the Dolphins driving 75 yards for a touchdown in less than a minute we’ll never know. But keep in mind, we’re also talking about a drive potentially for a tie as opposed to a drive for a game-winning field goal.
Or, rather, a game-losing and season-ending decision and play for the Raiders. Their playoff hopes are done. A winning season is no longer a possibility. Another late-season collapse is in the books. I guess it’s fitting it happened on a highly questionable decision that signified a lack of confidence.
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