Joel Klatt explains why Penn State won’t win a national title in the next 10-15 years

On the latest episode of “The Joel Klatt Show,” a listener sent a question asking if Penn State would win a national title in the next 10-15 years.

Joel Klatt doesn’t think so.

He pointed to recruiting as the number one reason. Klatt believes to win a national title, programs need to be ranked top five in national rankings four years in a row.

Let’s take a deeper look into how recruiting predicts national champions like Klatt suggests.

The College Football Playoff has existed for nine years. In those nine years, there have been five programs that lifted the trophy (Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Ohio State).

Got an interesting question in the mailbag last week @JoelKlattShow
– Will @PennStateFball win a national title in next 10-15 years?pic.twitter.com/8rHLQ6kkp8

— Joel Klatt (@joelklatt) February 8, 2023

 

Here are the recruiting rankings from 247Sports for those championship teams.

• 2022: Georgia – 1^st (2018), 2^nd (2019), 1^st (2020), 4^th (2021)
• 2021: Georgia – 3rd (2017), 1st (2018), 2nd (2019), 1^st (2020)
• 2020: Alabama – 1st (2016), 1st (2017), 5th (2018), 1^st (2019)
• 2019: LSU – 5th (2015), 2nd (2016), 7th (2017), 15th (2018)
• 2018: Clemson – 16^th (2014), 9^th (2015), 11^th (2016), 16^th (2017)
• 2017: Alabama – 1^st (2013), 1^st (2014), 1^st (2015), 1^st (2016)
• 2016: Clemson – 20^th (2012), 13^th (2013), 16^th (2014), 9^th (2015)
• 2015: Alabama – 1^st (2011), 1^st (2012), 1^st (2013), 1^st (2014)
• 2014: Ohio State – 18^th (2010), 6^th (2011), 5^th (2012), 2^nd (2013)

Out of the last nine champions, only Alabama and Georgia have had top-five recruiting classes. Clemson only ranked in the top ten one time during their championship run.

On the surface, this is good news for Penn State fans. The notion from Klatt that only the top five recruiting programs can win the national title isn’t accurate.

In the past three years that has been the case, but it’s been cyclical between the top recruiting program and others.

Here is where Penn State has ranked in national recruiting since 2018 according to 247 Sports.

• 6^th (2018), 12^th (2019), 15^th (2020), 21^st (2021), 6^th (2022), 13^th (2023)

The SEC has certainly dominated college football on the field and in recruiting. Six of nine champions in the College Football Playoff era have been from the SEC. Four of the last five winners are SEC teams. This might have been what was driving Klatt’s thesis.

The high school talent across the country primarily goes to one conference. In the 2023 recruiting class, there were 38 five star players. 21 of those players went to an SEC school. Talent wins on the football field and the SEC has the most talent.

So can Penn State win a title in the next 15-20 years?

The answer is yes.

Four out of the nine CFP winners did not have four straight top-five recruiting classes. The only teams that did were Alabama and Georgia.

Penn State needs to continue dominating its recruiting hotbeds and getting players that fit its program.

If they continue doing that, they can compete for national championships. Teams with their recruiting profile have done it before.

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