Joe Burrow and the deep ball

Joe Burrow has gotten off to an interesting start in the NFL. He has given Bengals fans hope, but there are deep ball concerns. Warrented?

Through just two NFL starts, rookie quarterback Joe Burrow has given Cincinnati Bengals fans something that have hungered for over the past few seasons.

Hope.

However, sometimes hope is a bit of a mirage. That glimmer on the horizon that turns out to be one more let down. A few years ago Marcus Mariota debuted with four touchdown passes in his first NFL game, and that never brought the Tennessee Titans to a Super Bowl.

Working in Burrow’s favor is how he has performed over those two contests. After leading the Bengals on a last-minute drive – working without timeouts – to put them in position to win in Week 1, he came back on a short week in the Battle of Ohio and truly battled in the pocket. Battered by the Cleveland Browns’ pass rush all night long, Burrow completed 37 of 61 passes for 316 yards and three touchdowns, without an interception, before falling to the Browns by a final of 35-30.

The performance, while admirable, was not perfect. Detractors point to the fact that Burrow needed 37 completions to eclipse 300 yards passing, as well as his Yards per Attempt (Y/A) of just 5.18, as well as his Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) of 6.16, and wonder if Burrow can be as effective as necessary to win games in the NFL. Then there are the deep ball questions. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Burrow has attempted 12 passes this year of 20 yards or more.

His stats on those 12 attempts? 1 of 12 for 23 yards and a touchdown. A deep completion percentage of 12.4%, an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of just 8.3%, and an NFL passer rating of just 67.4.

Below is Burrow’s spray chart from Week 1. You can see the effectiveness working underneath, but the incompletions mount as the throws work downfield:

Here is a cutup of Burrow’s deep passing attempts against the Chargers in Week 1:

Two of those attempts really stand out: The incompletion to John Ross along the end line from the third quarter, and the throw a few plays later to Green that fell incomplete. On the Ross throw, Burrow has a clean pocket and is able to step into the pass, and drops this in just before the end line. Ross gets to it, but this would have been a tough catch for the receiver to both pull in, and get his feet down. As you watch that replay, you can see how Ross’s left foot just stays in bound, and it might have been unlikely for him to get the right foot down before running out of bounds.

On the Green throw, this is a bit tougher of a miss. The receiver is running wide open, but Burrow cannot put the throw on him. To be fair to the QB, the pocket is starting to collapse around him, and he does have some “trash at his feet” which prevents him from taking a lead step with his right foot. All the power on this is generated in his hips and upper body, and that might have contributed to the poor placement on this play.

Before turning to Thursday night, it is important to shine a light on what you want to see in the deep passing game. Unlike throws underneath, where precision placement is critical, general accuracy is the goal on deep throws. If a quarterback puts the ball on the “wrong shoulder” on a curl route five yards downfield, that could be a problem. When you’re talking about routes thirty yards downfield, you just want the ball in a catchable spot.

Now let’s turn to Week 2. First, the spray chart:

Burrow was, as you can see, just 1 of 8 on those deep attempts. But looking at them, you will see again just how close he and the Bengals were on some potentially big plays. From the start the Bengals took some shots downfield, such as this throw towards Green:

Then there was this failed connection, again between Burrow and Green:

Burrow underthrows this just a bit, and while Green tries to get back to the football, the defender is able to bat it away and prevent the touchdown.

But Burrow did hit on one of these deep throws, for his first passing touchdown as a professional:

This is great recognition and execution from the quarterback, and also a great use of personnel from head coach Zach Taylor. On this 1st and 10 play the Bengals come out with 13 offensive personnel, putting three tight ends into the game. Seeing that, the Browns respond with their base defensive personnel and play a Cover 2 look in the secondary.

They’re expecting the run.

But Taylor puts the ball in Burrow’s hands, and they run a deep passing concept on the left, sending both tight ends on that side on vertical routes. Burrow identifies the coverage and attacks the Turkey Hole, that soft spot of Cover 2 behind the cornerback and along the sideline. He puts this throw on tight end C.J. Uzomah before the safety can rotate over, enabling his TE to snare this for the score.

So while Burrow’s deep passing stats are a work in progress, as the film indicates he and the Bengals are really close to hitting on some of these throws. As Goodberry notes in his discussion of Burrow’s debut, if they complete just one of those throws we are talking about a different Week 1 result. And while Nick Chubb and Baker Mayfield might have been too much to overcome on Thursday night, again Burrow and the Bengals’ deep passing game were close to hitting on some big plays.

Football is a game of inches. Sooner than you expect, Burrow and the Bengals are going to find those inches they need to be a more potent passing game.