It seems inconceivable that a team that just finished 13-3 and came within six minutes of winning the Super Bowl would actually have their predominant offseason conversations revolve around the quarterback. But here we are. The 49ers and their relationship with Jimmy Garoppolo have become a topic of discussion after rumors of the team’s interest in free agent quarterback Tom Brady continued to surface.
The chances the team ships out Garoppolo to sign a 43-year-old Tom Brady are closer to none than slim. That’s not where the pertinent conversation about the 49ers’ future at quarterback should be though.
Garoppolo is very likely going to be the 49ers’ starter in 2020.
After that is where things get interesting.
NBC Sports Boston’s Tom Curran reported 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has “some reservations about Garoppolo’s ceiling and overall decision making.”
That was apparent when Garoppolo threw just 14 passes across six quarters after throwing his first interception in the playoffs. The run game was working well, but 14 passes in six quarters is bigger than game flow.
MMQB’s Albert Breer followed that with a report that the perception around the NFL is that “Garoppolo is on the clock, because Kirk Cousins is a free agent in 2021.”
That is where the reality of the situation sets in. Garoppolo’s contract was always going to put him under a microscope.
First, he got paid like a top quarterback after just seven NFL starts. The team could’ve kicked the can down the road and franchise tagged him in 2017, but they put their faith in him after he won his five starts to end that season.
The structure of that deal makes it easy to construct ways for the 49ers to get out of the contract. Their salary cap situation made it more prudent to front load Garoppolo’s contract, which made his dead cap hits negligible over the final three years of his five-year, $137.5 million agreement.
That’s why Garoppolo might be “on the clock” in 2020. Especially if Shanahan believes a player like Kirk Cousins, who he wanted prior to the acquisition of Garoppolo, gives the 49ers a better chance to win.
Now, none of this is to say this is surely Garoppolo’s last year in Santa Clara. He could take a step forward in 2020 with 30-plus touchdowns, fewer interceptions and really elevate the 49ers’ offense to a level it didn’t reach last season. In that case, San Francisco is probably aiming to extend Garoppolo with a couple years left on his deal.
However, if he takes a step back in 2020, talk of a quarterback change in San Francisco will only get louder. Garoppolo’s dead cap hit this year is $4.2 million. Next year it drops to $2.8 million.
This chatter isn’t exclusive to Garoppolo and the 49ers though. It’s just louder because he plays the most important position on the field. The NFL is a results-based league, and teams won’t hesitate to move on if it’s financially feasible and they believe it will help them on the field.
We’re not there with the 49ers and their quarterback yet though. There’s an entire 2020 season to play out. A fully healthy offseason to study the offense and improve as a quarterback should put Garoppolo in a position to thrive next season. If he does – there won’t be any talk next year of a change at the position. If he doesn’t – prepare for these conversations to continue louder than ever.
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