It’s a long-awaited rematch…three weeks in the making. Still, after falling short at home in Week 8 by a 22-17 score, the New York Jets have had Week 11 in New England circled on their calendars as a chance to exact some revenge for that home loss. And a chance to exercise almost seven years of futility against the Patriots.
The Jets have lost 13 straight games to the Patriots, tied for the longest active losing streak to a single opponent (Broncos vs. Chiefs). Could this be the week the Jets finally get over the hump?
As if beating the Patriots wasn’t enough motivation, the Jets can take over first place in the AFC East with a win. Even if the Jets, Dolphins and Bills all sit at 7-3 after this week, the Jets have the head-to-head sweep. A win would also move them to 3-1 in the division, giving them solid backup in the tiebreakers.
The key for the Jets in this game is Zach Wilson and solving the Patriots defense, who rank No. 1 in defensive EPA per play (-0.14). The Jets are tied for 5th in that category at -0.07 wth the 49ers and Commanders.
Wilson has to be much better than he was in Week 8, where he was just 20/41 but threw for 355 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions, a key factor in the Jets falling short. Wilson made some, shall we say, questionable throws, at best. Clean those up and the Jets could be in business.
The Jets did keep the NFL’s sack leader, Matt Judon, off the board in Week 8, as he recorded just two tackles. The Jets’ offensive line, overall, did a solid job protecting Wilson, only letting him get sacked twice. On the flip side, the Jets sacked Patriots QB Mac Jones six times and picked him off once.
That’s where the Jets could win this game, as they have many games this season, is on defense. The group is playing with about as much confidence as they have all season with how they’ve grown as a group. They will be missing DT Sheldon Rankins, however, so guys like Nathan Shepherd, Solomon Thomas and the elevated Tanzel Smart will be called upon to play bigger roles in the middle.
Not just getting to Jones, but slowing down the Patriots’ run game, which has been fantastic of late with Rhamondre Stevenson. In the first meeting, Stevenson totaled 143 yards (71 rushing, 72 receiving) and had seven catches. Damien Harris will still be mixed in, but Stevenson has taken over the lead role, so if the Jets stop him and force the Patriots to throw the ball on third down (6-19 in the first game), the game falls on the shoulders of Mac Jones, which will play right into the Jets’ hands. Jones ranks 37th out of 48 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (-0.12). Of course, Wilson isn’t that much better. His -0.06 EPA/dropback ranks 32nd.
This could be a game where whichever defense steps up and whichever team’s quarterback makes fewer mistakes will be the one to win. And here’s thinking that team will be the Jets, especially with the momentum of going into their bye week beating the Bills.
Prediction: Jets 20, Patriots 16