It seems a foregone conclusion that the Cincinnati Bengals and star safety Jessie Bates won’t be able to do a deal this offseason before he lands with a new team in free agency.
But not everyone is on board with that idea.
ESPN’s Field Yates, for example, suggests the Bengals will see the value in bringing Bates back on a deal near the top of the safety market:
“Yes. The Bengals are about to enter ‘good problem to have’ territory, as the bill comes due as soon as this offseason with extensions for Burrow and Higgins. Ja’Marr Chase is extension-eligible in 2024, and planning has to start now. But Bates has made far too many plays during his tenure for the Bengals to let him go, including five picks over the past three seasons. It’ll cost a deal near the top of the market for safeties to keep him, though,”
It’s a very valid point to talk about how much value Bates brings to the defense, as few safeties in the league boast his range and the scheme could change and/or lose flexibility if he leaves.
But the finances don’t make a lot of sense unless Bates sees a down market. He’s openly talked about how much he wants to be in Cincinnati but can’t reasonably turn down much bigger money. And the Bengals used a first-round pick on Dax Hill anticipating he leaves.
While Joe Burrow’s upcoming extension won’t necessarily have major cap ramifications next season, re-signing a huge list of free agents, signing outside free agents and signing a draft class will. Extensions for Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase would eventually cross over with Bates’ deal in future years.
In an offensive league, it would be a stunner to see the Bengals pay up for Bates and risk losing an offensive piece. Bates-Hill-Vonn Bell in the secondary for a few more years would be nice, but it doesn’t seem likely.
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