The identity of a football team — any team — changes over the course of its season. The identity of the Wisconsin Badgers, and more precisely, their offense, changed over the course of the 2019 season. It has changed in ways which give the Badgers a very good chance to beat the Oregon Ducks in the 2020 Rose Bowl in just over three weeks.
The version of Jack Coan which played in late October would naturally not be enough to beat Oregon in Pasadena. No one needs to debate or litigate that question. The iteration of Coan which has played these last two games, against Minnesota and then Ohio State, is easily good enough to beat Oregon. This statement might seem so self-evident to the point that it doesn’t need to be discussed, but it is worth amplifying — not from Wisconsin’s viewpoint, but from Oregon’s.
Our team at Badgers Wire is going to pick apart this game on many levels and from many angles over the coming weeks. I will spend a lot of time processing this matchup through my observations and understandings of Oregon, so that my colleagues can focus more on Wisconsin’s players and positions groups.
When I say that Jack Coan gives Wisconsin a good chance to beat the Ducks, I make that statement based on one core observation about Oregon: It hasn’t faced very many good quarterbacks this year — not against Auburn in the season opener, and not against Pac-12 competition.
I would note that the quarterback Oregon stymied in the Pac-12 Championship Game, Tyler Huntley of Utah, is a legitimately good quarterback. However, he had a terrible game against the Ducks and didn’t get good play calling from a man Wisconsin fans remember during the Gary Andersen years: Andy Ludwig.
The Ducks feasted on bad quarterback play in the Pac-12. Cal, Stanford, Colorado, and Arizona — teams Oregon played in 2019 — all had brutal QB situations this year, for one reason or another. The more talented quarterbacks Oregon faced this season came in games against Washington State, Washington, and Arizona State… and those were all games in which Oregon gave up more than 30 points.
It is true that Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has been an important presence for the Ducks this year under head coach Mario Cristobal. Oregon’s strength is that it has dominated weaker teams and been competent against good teams. The more mediocre teams in college football struggle against weaker teams and lose the plot against competent teams. Oregon has risen above that mediocrity to win the Pac-12 for the first time since 2014. However, as good as Oregon is, a quality quarterback can thrive against UO’s defense. Jack Coan is playing at a very high level right now. The defense he will face on New Year’s Day is vulnerable. Coan could pluck the Ducks if he retains the great form he showed in Minneapolis and Indianapolis the last two weeks.